On the continuously expanding global economy, Taiwan's overall export orders received in January are expected to witness the 18th consecutive month of growth and show a double-digit rate in terms of value.
After finishing its survey on local businesses about prospects of Taiwan's export orders in Jan. 2018, Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) found out that 19.8 percent of the firms polled think that overall export orders received in the month will post continued growth, as compared to those last December, while 46.5 percent of the respondents opine that export orders will be unchanged, and the remainder expect export orders to shrink.
Given the results of the survey, MOEA reported a directional movement index of 46.5 based on respondent numbers, or 43.7 based on amounts of export orders received. Both the figures are indicative of an anticipation of export orders to drop this January from last December.
A seasonal downturn for local electronic and ICT industries is deemed as the most decisive factor among others behind the pessimistic anticipation, as the high season, which typically lasts from the third quarter to the final quarter of a year, for Taiwanese mobile device suppliers just ended.
In the face of the pessimism, Yuanta-Polaris Research Institute, one of the leading business consulting firms, suggests otherwise.
According to the institute, this year's Lunar New Year break fell in February, compared to last year's that began during January. Therefore, this January had four more working days than last January, which would help local enterprises to fill more export orders.
Notable is that the latest PMI (Procurement Manager Index) for export orders released by Chung-hua Institution for Economic Research, a Taiwan-based policy think-tank for economic and industry related research, also suggests a fast-growing pace of the island's exports as well.
After all, MOEA officials still hold optimism about Taiwan's overall export orders received this January to show a continued growth.
