U.S. Cotton Demand for 2014/15 Remains Projected

U.S. cotton demand for 2014/15 remains projected at 13.4 million bales or 5 percent below the 2013/14 estimate. Exports account for 9.7 million bales while mill use contributes the remaining 3.7 million bales.

Despite higher U.S. cotton supplies in 2014/15, a lower world trade—particularly imports by China—is contributing to the lower U.S. export forecast. In 2014/15, the U.S. share of global trade is projected at 27 percent, up slightly from 2013/14.

While U.S. export shipments are expected to decline, 2014/15 cotton mill use is forecast to rise about 3 percent; the U.S. textile industry remains very competitive and increased capacity is expected to be in place in 2014/15.

Based on these supply and demand estimates, U.S. ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 4.3 million bales, 1.6 million bales above the relatively low beginning level and the highest since 2008/09.

The implied stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 32 percent, also the highest in 6 years. The forecast for the 2014/15 U.S. average farm price is expected to range between 60 and 80 cents per pound, with the midpoint of this range 7.5 cents below 2013/14’s estimate of 77.5 cents per pound.