Signs of economic growth were prevalent in global trade data issued this week by Panjiva, an online search engine with detailed information on global suppliers and manufacturers.
U.S.-bound waterborne shipments—at 1,142,399—were up 8 percent annually in May and up 5 percent compared to April. On a year-to-date basis, Panjiva said shipments are up 4 percent at 5,239,084.
And the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S in May—at 172,656—was up 16 percent compared to May 2012 and up 5 percent compared to April.
“I think these numbers are pretty good over all,” said Panjiva CEO Josh Green in an interview. “We have seen some significant fluctuation in these numbers from month to month, but the year-to-date shipment number is encouraging. Trade feels relatively healthy, and the next interesting moment will be in the next month or two as corporate buyers start placing their bets for the holiday season.”
For this same period last year, Green said there was a bit of a dip from April to May, with growth occurring the year before.
In the short-term, Green said it is reasonable to expect growth between now through August. But if that does not materialize, he said it would be cause for concern.
“What we would hope to see in terms of growth is single-digit growth in June and as we get to July and August, we would like to see high single-digit growth,” said Green.
Looking at the global economy, Green noted that the U.S. is holding up well, which is refreshing, and said it is totally unclear as to when Europe is going to come out of its tenuous economic situation.
On some level, this mixed bag can be viewed as an upside for global trade, but Green said the real question mark is China and how it manages the transition of its economy, as much of what occurs in global trade now and in the coming years will be contingent on how China manages its economic growth.
