In April, non-manufacturing purchasing manager index was 56.1 percent, 1.9 percentage points lower than that in the previous month, still staying above the threshold, which indicated that the non-manufacturing economy has maintained a momentum of growth, but the growth has slowed down. All other sub-indices of non-manufacturing PMI dropped, except for the new export orders index and the inventory index.
The new orders index declined slightly. The new orders index was 52.7 percent, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points compared with the previous month, indicating that the non-manufacturing market demands continued to maintain growth, but the growth has decelerated. In view of different industries, the new orders index of construction industry was 54.3 percent, 2.0 percentage points lower than that in the previous month, which indicated that the growth rate of market demands of construction industry was slowing down. The new orders index of service industry was 52.3 percent, 0.5 percentage points lower than that in the previous month, which indicated that the new orders growth of service industry dropped. Of which, the new orders of leasing and business service industry, hotel service industry, railway and air transport industry obtained significant growth. The new orders index of real estate industry was 46.5 percent, continuing to stay below the threshold, which indicated that the real estate market was still suffering a recession.
Intermediate input price index dropped obviously. This index was 57.9 percent, down 2.3 percentage points than that in the previous month, which indicated that the intermediate input price index of non-manufacturing enterprises continued to rise, but with a decreasing growth rate. In view of different industries, the intermediate input price indices of construction industry, wholesale industry, and water transport industry dropped from a high level, that of railway, road and air transport industry continued to climb.
The subscription price index went down to near the threshold, reaching 50.3 percent, a month-on-month decrease of 1.7 percentage points, which was close to the threshold and the first decline in the last five months, showing a slowing down growth of the non-manufacturing subscription price. In view of different industries, the subscription price indices of telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services industry, railway transport industry, real estate industry and post industry were below the threshold, and the enterprise subscription price decreased month-on-month.
Business activities expectation index was still high. This index was 66.1 percent, staying at high level, although 0.5 percentage points lower than that in the previous month, which indicated that the non-manufacturing enterprises still maintained optimistic about the operating conditions within the next six months. In view of different industries, the business activities expectation indices of Internet, software and IT services industry, air and railway transport industry, house construction industry, wholesale and retail trade industry were all staying at a high level of 70 percent and above.
Annotations:
1. Seasonal Adjustment Note
The purchasing manager’s survey is a monthly survey, great fluctuations of data which affected by seasonal factors. At present, time series of China's non-manufacturing PMI have met the technical requirements of the seasonally adjustment, and the sub-indices of non-manufacturing PMI data on seasonally adjusted will be released since March 2012.
2. Explanatory Notes
China non-manufacturing purchasing manager index system constituted by 10 sub-indices, they are business activity index, new orders index, new export orders index in hand orders index, stock index, intermediate input price index, subscription price index, employment index, supplier delivery time index, and business activities expectation index. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development, A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates expansion from the previous month, while below indicates contraction.
3. Statistical Coverage
The survey involves 27 manufacturing industry categories in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities" (GB/T4754-2011), and was conducted in 1200 sampling enterprises of the non-manufacturing sector countrywide.
4. Survey Methods
Non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey was conducted in PPS ( Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, using the manufacturing sectors as the selecting layers, distribution of sample size was according to their value-added accounted for the proportion of total manufacturing value-added, and samples within layers and the main business revenue of the enterprises were selected by the PPS.
The survey was conducted by Direct Reporting of Statistics Networking and carried out by interviewing the enterprises’ purchasing managers monthly using questionnaire method.
5. Calculation Methods
Non-manufacturing purchasing managers survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. Diffusion index was calculated on each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers.
