The Ifo Indicator for the economic climate in the euro area improved, but remains below its long-term average value. The current economic situation in the euro area brightened only slightly and remains at a low level overall. Expectations for the next six months, on the other hand, were significantly more positive than last quarter. An economic stabilization in the euro area seems to be emerging.
The current economic situation improved compared to the second quarter in most euro area countries, but remains "poor" in the opinion of experts surveyed in France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Cyprus. By comparison, assessments of the current economic situation in Belgium, Ireland, Finland, The Netherlands and Slovenia are slightly better. In Austria and Slovakia assessments of the current economic situation are below the satisfactory mark. Germany and Estonia are the only countries in which economic experts reported a satisfactory to good economic situation.
Expectations for the next six months continued to improve for the majority of euro area countries. The experts surveyed in nearly all euro area countries were positive about the six-month economic outlook. Slovenia and Cyprus are the only countries in which the economic experts surveyed expect the economic situation to continue to deteriorate.
WES experts downwardly adjusted inflation estimates for 2013 in the euro area to 1.7% p.a. (previous quarter: 1.9%). In their opinion, the long-term interest rates will increase slightly over the next six months, but not in the crisis-afflicted countries, where they should either decrease slightly or remain unchanged. The majority of economic experts expect the US dollar to appreciate against the euro over the next six months.
