In its latest report, USDA has projected the global 2015/16 cotton production to decline 6 per cent from the previous season to 111.3 million bales.
“Lower crops are forecast for most major cotton-producing countries in 2015/16, with India and Uzbekistan production level with 2014/15,” a press release from USDA informed.
India is expected to be the leading producer in 2015/16 and is forecast to produce 29.5 million bales, or 26.5 per cent of global cotton production.
“Lower area and higher yields, compared with 2014/15, are expected to keep production in India unchanged,” the US agricultural agency averred.
According to USDA, China’s production is projected to decrease 10 per cent in 2015/16 to 27 million bales as area continues to trend lower and is expected to be only 3.7 million hectares in 2015/16.
The Chinese yield, however, is projected to rise to a record as area continues to shift to the higher yielding Xinjiang region.
Production for Pakistan in 2015/16 is forecast at 10 million bales, about 6 per cent below the previous year with a return to normal yields.
While, Brazil’s crop is expected to approach 6.8 million bales, nearly 4 per cent lower as both area and yield are projected below 2014/15.
World area harvested in 2015/16 is forecast at 31.8 million hectares, 2 million hectares or 6 per cent below the previous season and global cotton yield at 763 kg/hectare in 2015/16, slightly below 2014/15.
World cotton mill use is forecast at 115.3 million bales, 3 per cent higher than the 111.5 million bales expected to be consumed in 2014/15.
If realised, mill use would be the highest since 2010/11’s 115.6 million bales, with China and India being the largest consuming countries, with a combined cotton mill use of more than 53 percent of global total.
China’s cotton consumption is projected at 36 million bales in 2015/16, up from 35 million bales but equal to 2012/13.
In 2014/15, China is likely to import more than 9.5 million bale-equivalents of cotton yarn, with Pakistan, India, and Vietnam being leading suppliers of cotton yarn and will account for over 80 percent of yarn imports.
The agriculture agency has projected mill use in India at nearly 25.8 million bales, 5 per cent above 2014/15 and a record, supported in part by expanding textile product exports.
Pakistan’s cotton mill use is also expected to expand to near the global average in 2015/16, reaching 11.1 million bales.
In addition to gains in the United States, USDA informed that cotton mill consumption is also expected to increase in Turkey, Bangladesh, and Vietnam.
Global cotton trade, in contrast, is forecast to reach only 33.8 million bales in 2015/16, 400,000 bales below a year earlier and the lowest since 2008/09, when only 30 million bales were traded.
The recent downward trend is the result of China’s raw cotton import demand, which is projected to decline for the fourth consecutive season in 2015/16.
According to USDA, China is expected to import only 6 million bales in 2015/16, compared with an estimated 8 million bales in 2014/15, due to an expected decline in import quotas.
Offsetting a portion of China’s decline are increases for a number of countries, including Vietnam, Turkey, and Indonesia.
Meanwhile, exports in 2014/15 are expected to decrease mainly from the Southern Hemisphere, most notably Brazil and Australia.
Exports from these two countries have been forecast at 3.6 million bales and 2 million bales, respectively, in 2015/16.
Global ending stocks have been forecast at 106.1 million bales by the end of 2015/16, nearly 4 million bales below 2014/15.
While stocks are expected to decline for the first time in six years from last season’s record, they remain more than double the level from 2010/11.
“Despite a rise in cotton consumption, the world stocks-to-use ratio is estimated to decrease only slightly to 92 per cent,” USDA observed