In July, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 50.1 percent, down by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, slightly higher than the threshold.
In view of the sizes of enterprises, the PMI of large-sized enterprises was 50.3 percent, decreased 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, that of medium-sized enterprises was 50.2 percent, increased 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, the above two indices were staying above the threshold; that of small-sized enterprises was 48.1 percent, increased 0.9 percentage points month-on-month, continuing to stay below the threshold for 4 consecutive months.
In July, among the five sub-indices composing PMI, one sub-index increased, while that of the other four sub-indices decreased.
Production index was 51.8 percent, decreased 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, which was the lowest point since December 2011, indicating that manufacturing production growth continued to slow down. In view of different industries, the production indices of agro-food processing industry, textile wearing apparel manufacturing, tobacco manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, fabricated metal products manufacturing positioned above the threshold, the production outputs kept increasing month-on-month; the production indices of automobile manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, textile manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing, rubber and plastic manufacturing, positioned below the threshold, the production of enterprises declined continuously.
In July, the new orders index was 49.0 percent, fell by 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, continuing stay below the threshold for 3 consecutive months, which indicating that the market demand continued to decrease. In view of different industries, the new orders indices of tobacco manufacturing, agro-food processing industry, textile wearing apparel manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, computer communications and electronic equipment and instrumentation manufacturing stayed above the threshold, the volume of product orders of enterprises from customers increased in various degrees; the new orders indices of ferrous metal mining and processing, textile manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing positioned below the threshold, the market demand declined. In addition, the survey results showed that foreign new orders index which reflects the situation of foreign trade of manufacturing was 46.6 percent, down 0.9 percentage points month-on-month, continuously positioned below the threshold for 2 consecutive months, and was the lowest point since December 2011; the import index was 45.0 percent, decreased 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, continuing stay below the threshold for 3 consecutive months, which indicated that manufacturing orders from foreign products and raw materials imports continued to reduce.
Main raw materials inventory index was 48.5 percent, up by 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, still staying below the threshold, which indicating that manufacturing inventories of raw materials continued to decline. In view of different industries, the main raw materials inventory indices of textile wearing apparel manufacturing and non-metallic mineral products manufacturing were above the threshold, with an increase in raw material inventory; that of fabricated metal products manufacturing, ferrous metal mining and processing, automobile manufacturing, general equipment manufacturing and special equipment manufacturing were below the threshold.
Employed person index was 49.5 percent, decreased 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, positioned below the threshold for 2 consecutive months, which indicating that the demand growth of manufacturing employment continued to reduce. In view of different industries, the employed person indices of railways, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing, agro-food processing industry, tobacco manufacturing were above the threshold, and demand for employed person increased; that of automobile manufacturing, textile manufacturing, fabricated metal products manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing, rubber and plastic manufacturing were below the threshold, and demand for employed person decreased.
Supplier delivery time index was 49.0 percent, 0.1 percentage points lower month-on-month, positioned below the threshold, which indicated that the delivery time of manufacturing suppliers of raw materials slowed down slightly.
The survey showed that the main raw material purchase price index was 41.0 percent, declined slightly 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, positioned below the threshold for 3 consecutive months, which indicating that the manufacturing main raw material purchase price continued to show a sign of decline. In view of different industries, the prices of the main raw materials of the agro-food processing industry, chemical fiber manufacturing, rubber and plastic manufacturing, tobacco manufacturing and textile wearing apparel manufacturing positioned above the threshold, that of other manufacturing industries were all below 50 percent, and the enterprises purchase prices fell in various degrees over the previous month.
In addition, the finished goods inventory index was 48.0 percent, down by 4.3 percentage points month-on-month, and positioned below the threshold, which indicating that the pressure of finished goods inventory of manufacturing has eased.
| China's manufacturing PMI (Seasonally adjusted) | ||||||
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| 2012 | PMI |
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| Production Index | New Orders Index | Main Raw Materials Inventory Index | Employed Person Index | Supplier Delivery Time Index | ||
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| January | 50.5 | 53.6 | 50.4 | 49.7 | 47.1 | 49.7 |
| February | 51.0 | 53.8 | 51.0 | 48.8 | 49.5 | 50.3 |
| March | 53.1 | 55.2 | 55.1 | 49.5 | 51.0 | 48.9 |
| April | 53.3 | 57.2 | 54.5 | 48.5 | 51.0 | 49.6 |
| May | 50.4 | 52.9 | 49.8 | 45.1 | 50.5 | 49.0 |
| June | 50.2 | 52.0 | 49.2 | 48.2 | 49.7 | 49.1 |
| July | 50.1 | 51.8 | 49.0 | 48.5 | 49.5 | 49.0 |
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1. Explanatory Notes
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI): refers the index through the monthly summarized and compiled statistics of enterprises purchasing managers, which covers enterprises purchasing, production, logistics, and other links, is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point of economy strength, PMI above 50 percent reflects the manufacturing economy is expanding; less than 50 percent reflects narrowing.
2.Statistical Coverage
Involving 31 manufacturing industry categories in the "Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities" (GB/T4754-2011), the survey was conducted in 820 sampling enterprises countrywide.
3. Survey Methods
Manufacturing purchasing managers' survey was conducted in PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, using the manufacturing sectors as the selecting layers, distribution of sample size was according to their value-added accounted for the proportion of total manufacturing value-added, and samples within layers and the main business revenue of the enterprises were selected by the PPS.
The survey was conducted by Direct Reporting of Statistics Networking and carried through the monthly interview to enterprises' purchasing managers.
4. Calculation Methods
Manufacturing purchasing managers survey involving 11 questions on production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase prices, raw materials, inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, and etc.. Diffusion index was calculated on each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers.
PMI is a composite index, which used weighted method to calculate five diffusion indices (group index numbers). The 5 group index numbers and its weight are based on its leading impact on the economy. Including: new orders index, weighted 30 percent; production index, weight is 25 percent; employees index, weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index, weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index, weighted 10 percent.
5. Seasonal adjustment
The purchasing managers' survey is a monthly survey, data fluctuations which affected by seasonal factors. Now the released PMI composite index and sub-index are seasonally adjusted data.
