Taipei, Oct. 31, 2012 (CENS)--After 10 consecutive months of blue, Taiwan's economic indicator showed a yellow-blue in September, with the composite scores gaining seven points from a month earlier to 22, only one point from green, according to the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD).
CEPD adopts a five-color gauge for the island's economic performance: blue indicates a recession in economy, yellow-blue signals a slowdown and green means stable; while yellow-red shows warming economy, and red overheating.
The improvement in scores in September was due mainly to the better performance in finance, manufacturing, trading and private spending, with the export sector gaining three more points and other sectors including stock price index, industrial production index, nonagricultural employment, real manufacturing sales and sales indices of wholesale, retail, and food and beverage services each gaining one point.
J.P. Hung, director at Economic Research Department of CEPD, indicated that the island's economic performance in September seemed to be better than expected, but the annualized 6-month rate of change in the leading composite index posted the fifth consecutive monthly drop and the export in the first two weeks of October declined obviously, hence believing the indicator might remain yellow-blue in October instead of advancing to green.
Some economists also expressed pessimism about the economic climate in the coming months. K.Y. Liang, president of Polaris Research Institute, predicts little chance for the indicator to turn green in October due to lackluster performance in export and stock market, not to mention the prolonged European debt crisis.
M. T. Sun, director of the Center for Economic Forecasting at Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, also worried that the island's economic performance might be impacted by sluggish global market resulting mainly from the unsolved European debt and U.S. fiscal cliff.
|
Taiwan's Economic Indicator in September Unit: point |
||
|
Component |
Light (scores) |
Monthly growth |
|
Monetary aggregates M1B |
Yellow-blue (2) |
0 |
|
Direct and indirect finance |
Yellow-blue (2) |
0 |
|
Stock price index |
Green (3) |
1 |
|
Industrial production index |
Green (3) |
1 |
|
Nonagricultural employment |
Green (3) |
1 |
|
Customs export |
Yellow-red (4) |
3 |
|
Real machineries & electrical equipment imports |
Blue (1) |
-1 |
|
Real manufacturing sales |
Yellow-blue (2) |
1 |
|
Sales index of wholesale, retail & food services |
Yellow-blue (2) |
1 |
Source: CEPD
(by Judy Li)
