Taipei,Oct.17,2012(CENS)--Worldwide wafer fab equipment(WFE)spending is estimated at US$31.4 billion in 2012,for a decline of 13.3%from 2011's US$36.2 billion,according to market consulting firm Gartner,Inc.
The global WFE spending is projected to total US$31.2 billion,a 0.8%decline from 2012.In 2014 the market will return to growth,projected to rise 15.3%year on year to over US$35.9 billion,according to Gartner.
Gartner's research vice president,Bob Johnson,pointed out that WFE started off the year strong,as foundries and other logic manufacturers ramped up sub-30-nm production.However,demand for new equipment logic production will soften as yields improve,leading to declining shipment volumes for the rest of the year,he added.
Wafer fab manufacturing capacity utilization will decline into the low 80%range by the end of 2012 before slowly increasing to about 87%by the end of 2013,according to the market research firm.
But leading-edge utilization returned to the high 80%range by the second half of 2012,and will move into the low 90%range through 2013,providing for a somewhat positive capital investment environment,the company estimated.
Johnson said although a period of semiconductor inventory correction,which led to lowered production levels,appears to be over,overall market weakness is continuing to depress utilization levels.
He noted that increased demand,combined with less than mature yields at the leading edge,is creating shortages at the leading edge for logic,but that is not enough to bring total utilization rates up to desired levels.In the memory segment,some suppliers are even cutting production in an attempt to shore up weak market fundamentals.
Gartner believes that memory will continue to be weak through 2012,with strong declines in DRAM investments and a virtually flat NAND market.Looking beyond 2012,analysts foresee a modest growth pattern,with normal,but relatively benign,cyclical fluctuations as the industry returns to mid-single-digit growth in device revenue,and capital investment responds accordingly.
Foundry capital spending has been revised downward for 2012 and 2013 due to an earlier yield improvement on 28 nm technology achieved by some foundries and a higher downside risk of wafer demand in the fourth quarter of 2012 and first quarter of 2013.However,foundry capital expenditure is revised upward for future years due to the more aggressive development schedule of extreme ultraviolet(EUV)lithographic technology and 450 mm wafer.
