Introduction
There has been a gradual slowdown in the OLED lighting market and there are a number of reasons for that. One reason is the state of the global economy. The ultimate aim is to sell OLED lighting based on its energy efficiency, but presently OLED lighting is a luxury item and these items do not succeed in difficult times.
Nanomarkets feels that the present economic situation in Europe is bad for the OLED market since the OLED lighting industry is Eurocentric. Osram and Philips are the largest suppliers presently and a large number of the OLED luminare companies are Europe-based.
According to Nanomarkets, it is time to rethink the company’s forecasts for the OLED lighting market in a lower economic growth world in the future.
Prospects of Inflation
The advantages of long term efficiencies from the use of SSL products of any kind are discounted heavily during inflation and it is anticipated that this kind of a situation will arise due to governmental monetary policies impacting the growth potential in the OLED market. This may prove positive for OLED lighting.
High Unemployment
Increased unemployment in developed countries imply that less income is available for expensive light fittings like OLED lighting.
Problems in the Worldwide Construction Industry
Since there is a slowdown in the construction industry globally, new construction opportunities are lesser hence they impact the OLED industry.
Capital Market Uncertainties
Since there is a constant uncertainty, there is a reduced venture capital funding for OLED lighting companies.
Uncertainties About the Phasing Out of Incandescent Bulbs
Nanomarkets studied the OLED lighting market a few years back and felt that incandescent lighting would be phased out completely in all major countries during the 2011 to 2014 period. Nanomarkets still believes that this will happen. However in the past year it appears that US consumers and their representatives have expressed some displeasure about the phase-out.
Nanomarkets has also observed that a number of Asian nations have administrative plans for phase-out of incandescent lighting but no actual formal, legal or regulatory plans. Phasing out incandescent bulbs may speed up the OLED market but finally it may cause the market to reach saturation quicker.
The OLED Lighting Industry is in Deep Thought Mode
Observers of OLED feel that since there is no news from OLED lighting in the previous year, it is a sign that things are not so good technically and there is no improvement in size and performance to the degree anticipated. According to NanoMarekts there may not be any significant leap forward in penetrating the illumination sector for the coming three years till some of the drawbacks in OLED lighting are sorted out. Presently manufacturers are trying to create high-volume manufacturing facilities, factories which can take OLED lighting beyond the pilot stage and enhance the performance/cost ratio of OLED lighting.
Along with the global economic situation, pessimism prevails because OLED lighting may never reach a point where it can be sold due to its high energy efficiency or it will never attain acceptable price points or OLED panels will never be so large as to be used in lighting offices.
Nanomarkets has done an in-depth forecast and the observations are listed below:
Deeper Analysis of Pricing Trends
Previous price analysis included unit prices that Nanomarkets still believes is the approach that has to be taken since finally OLED lighting panels form a substitute for present lighting, which is sold in terms of units not square foot.
At this evolution juncture, it is required to tie pricing into square meters and lumens shipped. Furthermore, several scenarios of price decline have been considered.
More Consideration of Available Production Capacity
Previous forecasts have concentrated on demand patterns and possible scenarios for OLED lighting penetrating lighting markets. Presently it has been assumed that there is production capacity to produce sufficient amount of OLED panels to meet demand.
In the past year to eighteen months, the OLED manufacturing plans of major manufacturers have become a little clearer and Nanomarkets is now taking this into consideration in the forecasts we publish for OLED lighting.
The Question of Industry Leadership
When the initial forecast for OLED lighting was done many years before, Nanomarkets assumed GE will be a big factor in the market evolution and will push the market forward.
Philips and Osram are the obvious choice and there are a number of Asian companies that can fill the bill, too. According to Nanomarkets, OLED lighting markets are in need of a firm that behaves as an advocate for the industry and has resources to do so efficiently.
Reevaluation of All OLED Lighting Applications
It can be concluded that OLED lighting has matured a bit and some of the initial exuberance has worn off. Firms that were highly enthusiastic about OLED lighting are a bit more wiser and circumspect. This is not a bad thing and may lead industry growth in the long run.
The forecast of Nanomarkets reflect these categories more closely. In contrast, office lighting has become a significant market target for OLED lighting, this market is still some way off.
