The China government is likely to announce anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on polysilicon imported from Europe,the US and South Korea in the first quarter of 2013,which will significantly decrease imports.As a result,10-15%of China-based polysilicon makers are expected to resume production,according to Taiwan-based makers.
For firms that are still producing polysilicon,some of them plan to raise capacity utilization to full after Lunar New Year in February.According to some tier-one polysilicon makers,orders have been healthy and the current capacity utilization rates are around 50-60%.In addition,tier-one vertically integrated solar firms have to use part of the polysilicon output for in-house solar wafer production,so supply has been tight.
Tier-one polysilicon makers are aiming to increase price to to their production cost levels at US$18-20/kg.
Solar makers in China pointed out that so far more than 90%of domestic polysilicon firms have stopped production.Even if 10-15%of these makers resume production,they are most likely large-size cost-effecient players while small-and medium-size firms will continue to suffer because the production cost of most polysilicon firms in China is around US$30-40/kg.
According to China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance,China-based polysilicon firms produced around 65,000 tons of polysilicon in 2012,representing an on-year decrease of 20%,but imported polysilicon increased by 23%on year,reaching 85,000 tons.The self-sufficiency rate of China-based polysilicon has fallen below 47%,said the Alliance.
