Solar photovoltaic (PV) demand from China and Japan during the second half of 2013 is forecast to reach 9GW, representing an increase of 100% compared to first-half 2013 and 70% compared to second-half 2012. Overall, PV demand from the Asia Pacific (APAC) region will exceed 16GW during 2013, up 90% on year, and will account for over 40% of global PV demand in 2013, according to findings from research firm Solarbuzz.
"The record level of PV shipments to China and Japan coincides with corporate margins returning to positive territory and the final shakeout phase of uncompetitive manufacturers nearing completion," according to Finlay Colville, VP at Solarbuzz. "Having entered 2013 with a highly cautious outlook, first-tier suppliers are poised to exit the year with restored confidence, ahead of optimistic shipment and margin guidance for 2014."
China is forecast to become the top country for PV deployment in 2013. During second-quarter 2013, rooftop installation demand in China exceeded ground-mount installations for the first time, stimulated by government plans to develop the distributed generation segment. However, as bottlenecks related to project financing and grid accessibility for solar farms are resolved, the second half of 2013 will see strong ground-mount deployment from China Power Investment, China Guangdong Nuclear, Three Gorges Group, and other utility developers, said Solarbuzz.
Japan continues to be the most active PV market in 2013, with growth of 150% in 2013 compared to the prior calendar year and a forecast of over 5GW in the pipeline for installations before the end of second-quarter 2014. PV demand in Japan during the second half of 2013 will be driven by the commercial and utility segments with 65% market share, in contrast to the second half of 2013 when the residential segment accounted for over 75% of demand, the firm added.
Solarbuzz also said that within the other key APAC markets, Australia and India, solar PV demand is being affected by policy disruptions. India is subject to delays in Phase II of the National Solar Mission, the ongoing anti-dumping case, and the prospect of reduced feed-in-tariff (FIT) payments. Within Australia, forthcoming elections and uncertainty over the future of the carbon tax and the Renewable Energy Target are also hindering growth.
While China and Japan are currently fuelling project pipelines, demand from the APAC region remains highly dependent on China and Japan FITs. In Japan, the market is also showing signs of strain: module shortages have been reported, and developers are being forced into remote geographic areas.
"End-market growth in China and Japan has become essential to support domestic manufacturers and project developers, in addition to contributing to renewable targets," added Colville. "However, we do not yet know how far the subsidies will be reduced during 2014 or how much capacity can be added before market caps on annual PV installations will become necessary."
