Emerging markets are forecast to help bring stability to the solar industry,with up to 12GW of new photovoltaic capacity added in 2017,up from just 1.6GW in 2012,according to an IHS solar report.
The study,which evaluated the potential for PV additions in 40 countries around the world,found that up to 30GW of cumulative PV capacity will be added in emerging markets over the next four years,helping to stabilize the industry amidst incentive cuts in core European markets.
The IHS Solar Emerging Markets Study analyses emerging markets in Asia Pacific,Latin America,Middle-East,Africa and"emerging Europe."The report finds that although many of these emerging markets may present risks to companies seeking to enter them,many also offer growth prospects.Given the uncertainty in emerging solar markets,two forecast scenarios were presented in the study,which predicted that 2.1 to 3.5GW of new PV capacity will be added in 2013.
Having assessed a number of criteria,including macroeconomic factors,potential market size,project profitability,near-term policy and project pipelines in each of the 40 countries,the study found that some of the most appealing markets will be South Africa,Thailand,Chile,Romania and Brazil.
Tier-2 markets,which scored slightly lower,but still may offer opportunities to solar companies,but possibly not without risks,included Argentina,Ecuador,Turkey and Mexico.
While each country's market is unique,the study says the following recurring drivers of solar PV deployment have emerged:
In Africa and the Middle East,low,highly subsidized power prices have prevented renewables from taking off,but heavy reliance on fossil fuels for power generation and an expected 26%demand increase by 2017 will reverse the trend.In emerging European markets,low retail power prices combined with a high reliance on coal,hydro and nuclear make RES requirements the main driver for PV build-out in the region.Turkey is also looking at PV to potentially ease its surging power demand.Escalating power demand and increasing reliance on fuel imports have ignited interest in renewables in Asia.India has the highest mid-term PV market potential,driven by high industrial power prices and frequent power shortages.A heavy reliance on oil for power,high commercial and industrial power prices,and an expected 26%increase in power demand by 2017 have sparked solar development activity in Latin America.The study also identifies a pipeline of planned,approved and under-construction PV projects in these emerging markets:close to 20GW of PV projects,14GW of which are in the pipeline stage.However,many of the regions investigated are facing slow approval and implementation processes,and less than 1GW of this pipeline is currently under construction.
In terms of pipeline size,Chile currently leads the way with more than 3GW of projects,followed by Romania,South Africa,Serbia and Israel.
The study also identifies more than 300 developers and EPCs with major PV projects planned in these emerging markets.It says Securum Equity Partners is the most notable developer on this list and is behind the 1GW project being proposed in Serbia over the next four years;whether this project is fully completed,however,remains to be seen.
IHS also identifies another 42 developers with pipelines of at least 100MW,with projects in Chile,Romania and South Africa featuring predominantly.
