ICE cotton futures exploded to the upside this week with the spot December contract advancing 395 points to close at 88.93. New longs entered the market during the rally with the overall open interest rising by over 18k contracts, and specs were on the buy side as per the trader’s commitment report.
The next USDA supply & demand report is scheduled to be released on Monday, which should offer further direction for the market. December is very close to the 90 cent level and further buying interest will push the market above that level with ease.
However, if market fails to advance further, we could see the market dropping with specs getting out of the market by liquidating their longs.
Technically, the market broke out of the wedge pattern.This triggered some buy stops and certainly fueled some of the upside momentum. The trend of a weaker USD and stronger commodities remains in place.
Equity markets remain at the highs of the 52 week range as bond yields drift higher. Demand is very quiet this week with Ramadan holidays taking place. However, with the market this strong, doubt we would see any interest anyway. The market has not been successful breaking the 90 cent level based Z’13 and will be surprised if that changes this time.
