LEDs would usurp traditional efficient light bulbs based on the prediction for LED market share, policies to phase out incandescent bulbs as well as overall environmental performance.
Market share
According to a US Department of Energy report forecast in 2012, LEDs will surge in the US lighting market, to a 36% share in 2020 and 74 per cent in 2030 , implying $30 billion in annual energy savings by 2030.
The study, "Energy Savings Potential of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications", forecast rapid gains after 2014 as prices continue to fall.
McKinsey is even more aggressive for the global €55 billion ($A70 billion) general lighting market (which excludes automotive and specialist backlighting), forecasting a 45 per cent LED market share in 2016 from 9 per cent in 2011.
The incandescent ban
The International Energy Agency reported that 26 of its 28 member countries had policies in place to phase out incandescent bulbs as of 2011, except in New Zealand and Turkey.
The European Union (19 EU countries are IEA members) in 2012 phased out all non-directional, clear incandescent light bulbs usually used in household illumination.
The United States banned 100-watt incandescent light bulbs from October in 2012, followed by 75-watt bulbs this month and with 60-watt bulbs to follow.
China banned 100-watt incandescents from October in 2012, with other varieties following through 2016.
Overall environmental performance
A report published in September by the US Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and UK-based N14 Energy Limited, pointed out that , modern LEDs are superior to CFLs in terms of total environmental impact including the energy and natural resources needed to manufacture, transport, operate and dispose of light bulbs.
It compared the most typical and widely available light bulb in each technology class: LEDs, CFLs and incandescents.
With regards to operating efficiency, LEDs and CFLs were neck and neck: the bulbs each created about the same amount of light (800-900 lumens) but the incandescent bulb consumed 60 watts of electricity, followed by the CFL's 15 watts and LED's 12.5 watts.
But LEDs beat CFLs on overall environmental performance, including the energy and resources needed to make them.
LEDs cost more but have a longer life span: the PNNL report assumed its standard LED bulbs to last 25,000 hours for 2012 models, compared with 8,500 for CFLs and 1,000 for incandescents.
McKinsey forecasts a less than two-year payback by 2016 in the residential market and around three years in offices, from around 10 years now.
