Northwest European Urals is at its narrowest discount to North Sea Forties crude so far in 2013 as emerging buying interest in the Russian medium, sour grade sent its values soaring, market sources said Wednesday.
This comes just eight days after the Forties-Urals spread was at its widest in 10 months, according to Platts data.
Platts assessed Urals CIF Rotterdam on Tuesday at Dated Brent minus $1.84/barrel and Forties FOB North Sea at Dated Brent minus $0.55/b, a nine-month low, resulting in $1.285/b spread, the narrowest since December 24.
On February 28, the discount for Urals was $3.105/b, the widest since April 17.
The two grades -- after both spending February on a similarly bearish path -- have embarked on markedly divergent trajectories in recent days, with NWE Urals differentials soaring a cumulative $0.91/b during the first two trading days this week, while Forties continued to drift lower to its lowest since June 21, 2012.
Combined bids for CIF Rotterdam Urals cargoes during Platts Market On Close assessment process -- from Total's trading arm Totsa Monday and Statoil Tuesday -- sent values sharply higher this week, reversing a month-long fall driven by refinery maintenance.
"This has taken a number of people by surprise," a source said of Tuesday's unmet bid.
In both bids, which sought barrels loading only from the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk and not from Ust-Luga, Platts counted 12 cargoes that could fit each five-day bidding window. Yet neither bid found sellers.
The Forties differential to Dated Brent, in contrast, has fallen steadily over recent weeks due to an oversupplied prompt and a continued lack of demand from refiners.
Forties has lost a cumulative $2.11/b since it briefly touched Dated Brent plus $1.555/b on January 8.
Traders said Tuesday that the light, medium-sulfur grade was weakening due to a combination of an oversupplied prompt, European refinery maintenance, and continued uncertainty over the future of the South Korean arbitrage.
"Obviously the market has been influenced a lot by the South Korean events, but it's also a time of year when there is a lot of maintenance, and when you would naturally expect crude demand to be lower," a trader said.
"If there was going to be a time when Forties was weak, it would be now."
There were few signs of Forties rebounding because it has fallen between competition from sourer but cheaper Urals and steady demand from refiners for other, sweeter, North Sea grades.
"Going forward I don't see any major support for Forties," a trader said Wednesday. "Urals being bid proves a floor to values, but doesn't mean that [the Forties differential] will automatically increase."
