The Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2013-2014/Q3 2013 Report from the Economic Committee of the European Steel Association (EUROFER) confirms the stabilization of the EU economy in the second half of 2013 and a gradual but slow recovery in 2014.
According to EUROFER, activity in the EU's steel using industries fell sharply in the first quarter of the current year, reflecting a stronger than usual seasonal slowdown due to harsh winter conditions, depressed domestic demand and weakened support from exports. The drop in activity exceeding earlier estimates implies a negative carry-over effect from the poor first quarter on activity in the remainder of the year and, as a consequence, on total output in 2013. For 2014 a moderate recovery is to be expected, owing to a positive contribution from investment and private consumption to domestic demand.
"Real steel consumption will fall almost 4.5 percent this year. Rising imports exacerbate the impact of weak demand on EU mills. However, owing to a less pronounced stock cycle as in 2012, we do expect that the market will be heading towards stabilization at the end of the year. For 2014 we foresee only a marginal rebound in real consumption. Apparent consumption should improve by two percent compared with last year," said Gordon Moffat, EUROFER general director.
EUROFER stated that the global economy is expected to pick up some speed from mid-2013 onwards and a related mild rebound in export demand. This should be supportive to confidence gradually gaining further strength, both at the corporate and the private consumer level.
