After falling 15% in 2012, solar wafer production is forecast to grow 19% in 2013, passing 30GW and recovering to 2011 levels, according to Solarbuzz. However, industry utilization is expected to remain below 60%, and while prices have stopped falling, no significant increases are expected, so profitability for wafer makers will remain challenging.
Multi-crystalline silicon technology is forecast to continue its dominance of the wafer market in the short- to mid-term. However, the higher efficiency solar cells that can be produced using mono-crystalline silicon wafers continue to be in demand for applications where space is restricted. The higher efficiencies enable pricing at a premium over standard multi-crystalline modules. In particular, rapid growth in the Japan market is creating demand for premium efficiency modules that use mono-crystalline wafers.
"Supported by attractive solar incentive rates, Japan will account for more than 10% of global solar demand in 2013," stated Charles Annis, vice president at Solarbuzz. "With a strong rooftop segment and limitations on the availability of land for large-scale ground-mount installations, Japan has now become a key driver for mono-crystalline based modules."
However, for mono-crystalline wafers to increase market share compared to multi-crystalline wafers, improvements in mono-crystalline ingot production and module efficiencies will be required. Annis added, "Multi-crystalline wafer manufacturers are constantly improving casting approaches and developing new high-efficiency multi-wafers. Leading wafer manufacturers are now selling high-efficiency multi-crystalline wafers with efficiencies as high as 18%, which is in the range of low end mono-crystalline wafers, and thus helps maintain the competitiveness of multi-crystalline based products."
In the long term, n-type mono-crystalline wafers and enhanced mono performance supported by advanced cell designs and manufacturing have the potential to lower total costs per watt and enable faster growth of the mono-crystalline wafer market. Assuming the success of these technologies, Solarbuzz forecasts that mono-crystalline cell production will grow at a faster rate than multi-crystalline cells beginning in 2015, expanding into more applications and increasing market share.
