Europe solar installations are forecast to fall by more than 6GW in 2013, with 1.3 GW of this decline attributed to incoming EU anti-dumping duties on China-made modules, according to IHS.
IHS has cut its forecast for the second half of 2013 in Europe by more than 1.3GW, citing the anti-dumping tariffs that came into force on June 6. As a result of these duties, and several other factors, including changes to incentive systems, IHS predicts total Europe solar installations will fall to 11.6GW in 2013, down 33% from 17.7GW in 2012.
Despite this dramatic fall, IHS still predicts global installations will grow at a double-digit rate to 35GW in 2013 driven by a surge in demand in Asia.
"Although the European Commission (EC) has given a small window of opportunity by reducing the tariff to 11.8% for 60 days, IHS still expects dampened demand," said Ash Sharma, senior director of solar research at IHS. "This decline comes in stark contrast to the sharp increase in module shipments from China as buyers stockpile ahead of the next tariff increase in August, As a result IHS has cut its Europe forecast for the second half of 2013 by 1.3GW-a nearly 20% reduction from our previous outlook."
The analysis found that the EU duties will accelerate the decline in Europe installations with biggest falls in Germany and Italy.
"Germany will account for the majority of this decline with installations 3GW lower in 2013 than the previous year," Sharma added. "Italy will also contract by another 2GW."
Double-digit growth still expected
Despite this huge fall in Europe demand, IHS still predicts that the global solar market will grow in 2013, with installations hitting 35GW, up 11% from 31GW in 2012.
However, unlike most previous years, Asia will be the driving force for growth, with installations in the region predicted to exceed 15GW for the first time and thus account for 45% of global demand. This will make the Asia market larger than Europe for the first time.
China and Japan will account for the majority of this and IHS predicts they will become the two largest markets in 2013 based on volume. Japan will lead in terms of revenue, as IHS previously announced.
Emerging markets provide relief-but not in 2013
While the solar market is continuing to fragment geographically in terms of end demand, solar companies cannot fully rely on so-called emerging markets to provide support amid waning demand in Europe in 2013.
IHS predicts that emerging markets will add 5.9GW in 2013 up from 3.4GW in 2012. However, this will be made up by more than 60 countries globally.
"The good news, however, is that installations in these regions will grow to 9GW in 2014 and to more than 16GW in 2017 highlighting the need for solar companies to focus on emerging markets-but more importantly picking the right ones," Sharma concluded.
