USDA for 2014/15 Projects That Global Cotton Production Will Decline

The first U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton forecast for 2014/15 projects that global cotton production will decline for the third consecutive season. Although projected at its lowest in 5 years, production remains above expectations for consumption.

World production is projected to decline slightly from 2013/14 (to 115.5 million bales) as area is expected to shift from China and Australia to lower-yielding countries.

Based on USDA’s initial projections, China, India, the United States, and Pakistan will account for a combined 71 percent of world production in 2014/15, similar to 2013/14.

Global cotton consumption for 2014/15 is projected at 111.8 million bales, a 2-percent increase from the current season, as mill use continues to expand from 2011/12’s 8-year low. Modest growth in world gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to support the consumption growth in 2014/15.

China, India, and Pakistan are expected to lead global cotton mill use and account for a combined 65 percent of world consumption in 2014/15, slightly above the current season’s estimate.