Goldman Sachs latest global LED industry report pointed out decreasing LED lighting products are driving LED lighting market growth. Goldman Sachs believes 2013 and 2014 general lighting demands have climbed up 70% and 40%. The financial institute upheld its previous outlook that LED lighting penetration rate will reach 70% by 2020, but indicated future lighting demand growths will be much faster than expected.
The global LED market shows, Goldman Sachs lowered estimations for 2013-2014 demands, due to effects from the LED backlight market. Smartphone and monitor backlight amounted to 55-60% of LED demands. As smartphone, TV and backlight application penetration rates saturate, TV backlight is growing moderately, and its growth trend is expected to extend well into 2014. Goldman Sachs estimates only a 4% growth rate for 2014 monitor and smartphone demands, which was much lower than the expected 7%.
Compared to the relatively conservative outlook of the backlight market, Goldman Sachs was optimistic about LED lighting market growth. Decreases in LED lighting product costs have driven the overall market growth to be better than expected. From commercial lighting perspective, the payback period has been halved to about four to five years compared eight to 10 years in the past. Goldman Sachs is optimistic in the next few years, the LED lighting demand volume growth will be much faster than expected. From the situation in 2013-2014, it is estimated LED and average lighting demands will grow 70% and 40% respectively.
