Solar demand from the emerging Asia Pacific and Central Asia (EAPCA) region is forecast to exceed 3GW by 2017, according to Solarbuzz. Compared to 723MW of solar demand in 2012, this represents a strong compound annual growth rate of 28%.
"Previously, most solar applications across the EAPCA region were based upon solar lighting applications or residential schemes," said Steven Han, analyst at Solarbuzz. "However, future solar demand will be based upon widespread adoption of large-scale, ground-mounted solar PV installations. By 2017, the ground mount segment will account for 64% of all solar demand from the EAPCA region."
Solar demand across the EAPCA region remains highly fragmented and is characterized by a diverse range of policies and end-market drivers, which is consistent with solar industry adoption in other emerging markets. However, solar is well understood by policy makers in the EAPCA region, with the Southeast Asia region widely recognized as a leading hub for upstream manufacturing.
Solar demand across the region will be dominated by Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Taiwan. Between 2013 and 2017, these five countries will account for 50% of the cumulative solar demand forecast from the EAPCA region.
Thailand is forecast to be the region's largest market, driven by rapid growth in demand for electricity and the requirement to decrease its financial burden from imported energy. Short-term solar demand will emerge by executing on project pipelines accumulated from the previous Adder Support Scheme.
Indonesia has long-term plans for solar power to provide 0.3% of the national energy mix by 2025, equivalent to 1GW of new solar demand. Indonesia is forecast to become the second largest solar market within the Southeast Asia region by 2017, supported by forthcoming feed-in-tariff (FIT) incentives. Taiwan and South Korea have also prioritized solar within their renewable energy targets.
Over the next few years, a greater number of countries will contribute to overall solar demand from the EAPCA region. The Philippines accumulated more than 500MW within its solar pipeline at the end of 2012, with strong investments coming from Japan and South Korea. Bangladesh has developed a large off-grid solar market with plans to install an additional one million solar PV systems by 2016. Kazakhstan is targeting 77MW of solar power generation over the next few years, and Pakistan has announced over 500MW of solar deployment.
"Although challenges will remain in securing adequate solar project financing, we forecast that overall solar demand from the EAPCA region will account for 5% of global solar demand by 2017, with the potential to reach 5GW," concluded Han.
