US commercial crude stocks likely rose 2.5 million barrels in the reporting week that ended Friday, analysts polled by Platts said Tuesday.
The American Petroleum Institute will release its weekly report at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT), while the US Energy Information Administration will release its weekly data at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday.
The expected build is a little over half the 4.6 million barrels rise shown by the week-on-week change in the EIA five-year average. At 385.92 million barrels for the reporting week that ended March 22, US crude stocks were 11.43% above the five-year average, EIA data showed.
Meanwhile, analysts expect that US refinery runs likely picked up by 0.5 percentage point, cutting into any expected build in crude stocks, as some US refineries returned from maintenance.
US gasoline stocks are expected to fall by 1.25 million barrels, in line with the EIA's five-year average.
Analysts expect that despite anticipated higher production, US gasoline demand has likely increased as well, leading to a draw in stocks. "It's not just about the higher production we'll see this week, it's about where demand falls," Oil Outlooks president Carl Larry said. Gasoline demand readings over the past few weeks have been inconsistent, Larry said.
US implied demand for gasoline averaged 8.399 million b/d for the reporting week that ended March 22, according to EIA data.
"It's not easy to find any consistency in the demand numbers, so as we move into the summer driving season, gasoline takes the throne from distillates," Larry said.
Heading into this latest reporting period, US Atlantic Coast gasoline stocks, at 58.934 million barrels, were 0.16% above the EIA five-year average, marking the first weekly surplus to the marker since the week ending April 20, 2012. The USAC is home to the New York Harbor-delivered RBOB contract. US distillate stocks are expected to have fallen 1 million barrels last week, analysts said.
At 115.252 million barrels for the reporting week that ended March 22, US distillate stocks were 16.87% below the EIA five-year average.
The weekly change in stocks has been volatile, Larry said.
"But even when the EIA does go back and revise numbers and adjust for exports, demand turns up a lot higher," he added. "So we're going to see how production shapes up despite the demand and export numbers. We figure that as we ease out of winter use and with the economy back on the rebound we will get more supply drawn down."
