The European Union (EU) plans to announce the details of its anti-subsidy tariff against China-based solar firms on June 6, 2013. The tariff is expected to be 30-67.9% with the average as high as 47.6%. The anti-dumping tariff rate will be announced in August. Both tariff rates will be finalized at the end of 2013.
Some Taiwan firms may benefit from the punitive tariffs against China players, Digitimes Research believes. But the solar markets in Europe will grow slower due to a lack of low price products.
As for China-based firms, a more hostile export market will cause inventory level to rise sharply. China-based firms may temporarily transfer orders to other Asia-based firms but in the long run, moving manufacturing outside of China may be the best solution for China players due to cost concerns and the possibility of other countries also launching their anti-trust probes.
To retaliate, the China government is also conducting an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation against US-, EU-, and South Korea-based polysilicon makers. Once EU announces the punitive tariffs, China is likely to respond. Hence prices of polysilicon are forecast to fluctuate.
The solar trade war has been going on since 2012 after the US imposed punitive tariffs on China-made solar cells. However, as the Europe market accounts for more than 50% of solar exports from China-based firms, actions from EU will have a more severe impact on China players.
