ASPs in the LED market fell 20-30% in 2012. LED makers believe the price fall for LED lighting products will be relatively significant compared to the price fall of backlighting products in 2013. In addition, the price for 60W retrofit LED light bulbs may fall to US$10/unit, in other words, the ex-factory price of this product will likely fall to US$4/unit in 2013.
Biing-Jye Lee, chairman of Taiwan-based LED chipmaker Epistar, pointed out that the global output of LED light bulbs in 2012 was only around 100 million units and the figure is expected to grow to 300-400 million units in 2013, reaching a penetration rate of 5%. However, the current price of 60W retrofit LED light bulbs from international brands such as Philips is around US$25/unit. In the Japan market, the price of such products is around US$15-20/unit, said Lee. In second-half 2013, the retail price of 60W retrofit LED light bulbs may fall to US$10/unit and demand will surge, added Lee.
The brightness of 60W retrofit LED light bulbs is equivalent to 800 lumens, Lee revealed. Taking the cost of LED chips, electrical circuits and other components, for the product price to be lowered to US$10/unit, the ex-factory price needs to fall to around US$4/unit, according to Lee.
Ming-Jiunn Jou, Epistar general manager, stated that in 2013 lighting chip prices will fall by a greater magnitude than backlighting chip prices. This is because backlighting chip prices are close to the bottom already.
Epistar noted that blue LED capacity utilization rate is currently around 70% but AlGaInP LED capacity utilization rate is only around 60-70%. The firm expects demand for AlGaInP LEDs will improve in April.
According to market research institutes, the global average retail price of 40W retrofit LED light bulbs in December 2012 showed a slight 0.2% increase, reaching US$18.7/unit. On the other hand, the global average retail price of 60W retrofit LED light bulbs in December 2012 was US$30.9/unit, down 3.9% on month, according to the studies.
Market research institutes also stated that the price fall of 60W retrofit LED light bulbs in the US market was 13.4% in December 2012, the most significant compared to other markets. Samsung introduced 10.8W LED light bulbs to replace traditional 60W incandescent light bulbs in the US market for a retail price of US$15/unit. This was the lowest price compared to similar products from other brands.
