Barrier films for flexible electronics will grow at 39.8% annually (CAGR) for the next decade, said Cambridge-based analyst IDTechEx.
In its report, 'Barrier films for flexible electronics 2013-2023: needs, players, opportunities' the firm is forecasting the market "to conservatively grow to just over $34m by 2016. Up until that point, over 95% of the market is accounted for from a slowly growing market for flexible photovoltaics based on CIGS and a-Si platforms" - CIGS is copper indium gallium (di)selenide, an efficient thin-film amorphous technology.
Significant growth is expected to start once flexible display technologies move out of the prototyping stage and into commercial production.
By 2023, said the report, the market for flexible barriers is expected to be over $240m, with displays accounting for over a third.
Flexible displays have been shown by LG, Nokia (pictured) and Samsung (Youm, pictured).
They need barrier layers because many materials inside flexible displays, particularly inside OLED displays, are damaged by traces of water and oxygen passing through the plastic substrates.
"The widely quoted requirement for water vapour transmission rate (WVTR) for an OLED lifetime of >10,000 hours is 10?6g/m2/day," said IDTechEx. "Barriers of this level of performance are not widely available yet, but several barrier technology developers already have manufacturing facilities for small volumes, and samples available."
At the other end of the scale, materials inside flexible electrophoretic displays (E Ink is an electrophoretic display) are not sensitive to oxygen and moisture.
Flexible photovoltaics will also need barrier layers, particularly where they are aimed at long-life applications: integrated into buildings or cars for example.
"Costs in these market segments are still prohibitive though, hence the slow uptake of the technology," said IDTechEx. "WVTR for these types of solar cells, in order to serve their target ranges from 10?3g/m2/day for CIGS and amorphous silicon all the way to 10?6g/m2/day for the more fragile dye sensitised solar cells, and organic PV."
Lower-performance barriers necessary for CIGS and a-Si encapsulation are already available, so the market here will grow depending on output, cost, and end-user adoption.
Amongst high-performance barrier materials, the firm identifies increasing interest in flexible glass which is inherently hermetic and also replaces the plastic substrate.
"Initially, flexible glass has a handicap as it is dealing with its handling issues. On the plus side for flexible glass developers, they already have long standing relationships with major display and PV manufacturers worldwide through their rigid glass businesses," said IDTechEx, giving special mention to glass makers Corning, Schott and NEG.
Report author Dr Harry Zervos expects flexible glass to take off slowly from 2016, after polymers with barrier coatings.
Zervos' report includes profiles of 20 developers of barrier films.
