China-based die vendor Sanan is projected to take the lead in GaN LED wafer capacity by the end of 2014, overtaking current leader Epistar of Taiwan, according to IHS.
While Epistar is forecast to continue its spot at the pinnacle in 2013 and through most of 2014, its run at the top will end sometime in the fourth quarter when Sanan takes over.
Wafer capacities are calculated by IHS based on tracked MOCVD installations, and Sanan's potential lead is dependent on a planned installation of new machines in 2014. "The second-phase fab of Sanan in Wuhu, China is ready for another 100 GaN LED MOCVD tools in addition to the 100 that had been installed in 2011," said Alice Tao, senior analyst for LEDs and lighting at IHS.
All told, Sanan could reach 10.8% of wafer capacity by the fourth quarter of 2014 in 2-inch equivalent wafer capacity, followed by Epistar with a forecast 10.1%, LG Innotek with 6.8% and Samsung LED with 6.1%.
However, the rankings could change depending on what is being measured, IHS noted. For instance, Epistar remains the top maker for yielded die and binned die, even by the end of 2014. Also, companies such as Nichia of Japan, Osram of Germany, North Carolina-based Cree and Philips Lumileds of California rank high in terms of actual revenue when utilization rates and pricing are considered, even though the four makers are not in the top-five when it comes to unprocessed wafer capacity.
While Sanan's capacity is double that of any other China-based maker, other makers in China, such as HC Semitek, Elec Tech and Focus Lightings, are also expanding capacity. This is true despite continued overcapacity in the industry and even if some China makers have been less than successful, said IHS.
China was the primary destination in 2012 for most MOCVD shipments. The country's prominence in the market appears uncontested for the short term, accounting for 80% of shipments in 2013 and 85% in 2014. In comparison, shipments and orders will be low in other regions. As a result of both factors, China companies are predicted to increase their overall share of the market.
Many China makers had jumped into the market or had expanded their capacities in 2011 when subsidies from local governments were available, However, most top suppliers continue to be based in other areas, including South Korea, Taiwan and Japan-many of these holding the strongest intellectual property portfolios.
Outside of Asia, China companies are not particularly strong. No China makers, for example, appear in the top-10 for packaged LEDs. This makes the anticipated rise of Sanan to the top in wafer die capacity by the end of 2014 even more striking, IHS added.
