Wind generation in November blew through a 31-month-old record share of total energy in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, a new report shows, and an expert said it contributed to ERCOT's low on-peak power prices that month.
Wind farms supplied 18.4% of the independent system operator's total load in November, compared with October's 12.3%, last November's 15.1%, and the previous record high of 15.2% set in March 2013.
The latest numbers are from ERCOT's 2015 Demand and Energy Report, released late Thursday.
Jeff Schroeter, managing director of Plano, Texas-based Genova Power Advisors, said Monday that wind generation availability, weather and low natural gas prices converged to create a "perfect storm" for low power prices in ERCOT this November, which accrued to "ratepayer benefit and generator detriment."
Day-ahead on-peak power at the heavily traded ERCOT North Hub averaged $21.90/MWh in November, down 6.7% from October and down 43.6% from November 2014, according to Platts data.
Asked whether wind generation contributed to November's low prices, Schroeter said in an email, "Yes -- wind generation availability due to weather and capacity additions, bid strategies and the energy-only market converge with ultra-low gas prices."
Day-ahead natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel, which ERCOT uses as a local benchmark for cost estimates, averaged $2.051/MMBtu this November, compared with $2.352/MMBtu in October and $4.006/MMBtu in November 2014, according to Platts data.
In contrast with wind's increased share, natural gas- and coal-fired generation supplied decreasing percentages of power in November, compared with October. Natural gas' share fell from 47.9% in October to 44.5% in November, while coal's share fell from 30.4% to 27.2%.
Overall, demand fell almost 13% from 27.5 TWh in October to about 23.9 TWh in November, and this November's total demand was down 2.9% from the November 2014 total of 24.7 TWh.
Natural gas supplied 10.6 TWh this November, compared with 13.2 TWh in October and 9.7 TWh in November 2014.
Coal supplied 6.5 TWh this November, compared with 8.4 TWh in October and 8.4 TWh in November 2014.
Wind supplied 4.4 TWh this November, compared with 3.4 TWh in October and 3.7 TWh in November 2014.
Nuclear power supplied 2.3 TWh this November, compared with 2.5 TWh in October and 2.9 TWh in November 2014.
For 2015 through the end of November, nuclear power and wind were tied at about 11.3% of total generation. Nuclear power supplied 11.3% of ERCOT's power during the first 11 months of 2014, while wind supplied 10.6% during that period.
Year to date through November, natural gas supplied 48.4% of ERCOT's power, compared with 41.1% for the first 11 months of 2014.
Year to date through November, coal supplied 28.5% of ERCOT's power, compared with 36.3% for the first 11 months of 2014.
