Global solar PV demand is forecast to grow by up to 25% in 2015, according to IHS. Due to the ongoing cost reductions for solar PV, IHS forecasts that installation demand will grow at a double-digit rate of 16-25% and installations in the range of 53-57GW. Geographically, the largest markets again will be China, Japan and the US, while the largest contributors in terms of absolute growth will be China, the US and India.
Concentrated photovoltaic solar (CPV) is also expected to experience accelerated growth. Starting in 2015, IHS forecasts an accelerated CPV market expansion of 37%, to reach approximately 25MW of new installations. Installations of both high-concentration photovoltaic (HCPV) and low-concentration photovoltaic (LCPV) systems will expand at double-digit percentages every year through 2020.
IHS also said distributed PV (DPV) in China will continue to fall behind expectations in 2015, but continues to grow. With challenges ahead for China's ambitious plans for DPV, IHS forecasts the country will struggle to achieve it aggressive targets. Even so, the market is clearly beginning to build momentum, and policies and business models are helping to accelerate growth. IHS forecasts that DPV installations in China will reach 4.7GW in 2015, an increase of nearly 20% from 2014.
IHS added it predicts grid-connected PV energy storage installations to triple in 2015. The PV power system is evolving away from the traditional and relatively simple system of one-directional flow-from large-scale conventional generators through transmission and distribution lines to consumers, to an increasingly complex mix of small, distributed generators and consumers at all points in the electricity grid. Annual installations of grid-connected PV systems, paired with energy storage, will grow more than threefold, to reach 775MW in 2015.
Also in 2015, Chile will follow South Africa to reach 1GW of installed PV capacity. IHS forecasts that Chile will be the next emerging market, after South Africa, to reach the milestone of 1GW in installed PV solar capacity. Aside from Chile, other new emerging markets poised for rapid growth in 2015 are Jordan, the Philippines and Honduras. Conversely, great uncertainty still surrounds Mexico, Brazil and Turkey.
Meanwhile, in 2015 although monocrystalline technology will not threaten multicrystalline domination in the near future, IHS expects it will steadily gain share, benefiting from growth on rooftop installations, as well as increasing demand for higher-efficiency products. IHS forecasts the monocrystalline share of global cell production will increase to 27% in 2015, up from 24% in 2014.
Systems up to 100kW to account for 30% of global installations. There is potential in store for DPV in both established and emerging markets around the world. IHS forecasts distributed photovoltaic (DPV) systems-i.e., those sized 100kW or smaller-to account for 30% of global installations in 2015, with 15.7GW projected, up from 13.2GW in 2014. The largest market for these installations in 2015 will be Japan, with DPV accounting for nearly 70% of installations. The US is also expected to install more than 2.2GW of DPV in 2015, as net-metering and third-party ownership models continue to drive this market.
