Whether it was the weather or just a slowdown in several performance categories, the athletic footwear market fell a modest 1.4% during the first three months of 2013 to $3,414.8 million from $3,463.0 million. The data showed that unit sales suffered a 6.0% decline, partially offset by a 3.8% increase in average selling price, according to data provided exclusively to SGI by research market leader NPD Group. The children’s business remained very solid with a 6.1% increase to $683.3 million comping up on a 15.3% increase the prior year. However, the men’s category slipped 1.8% this year to $1,571.9 million after a 10.5% increase last year and the women’s category fell 6.1% this year to $885.9 after a 0.3% decline last year that was still fighting the tail end of the demise of toning.
Athletic specialty and sporting goods channels participated in the overall weakness with sales in this channel down 0.2% to $2,190.9 million with unit sales off 3.5%, partially offset by a 3.0% increase in ASP to $68.14. The sneaker business in national chains took the biggest hit with a 10.8% decline to $388.0 million comping a 0.5% decline prior. Department stores were slightly negative at -2.5% to $252.9 million while shoe chains were up 1.6% to $583.0 million.
The performance running category continues to show softness with a 7.6% decline to $1,033.0 million that was comping against a strong 15.7% gain the prior year, according to NPD data which covers the vast majority of the footwear market. NPD data shows that a big part of the shortfall is explained by a fall in viz-tech product with most of the declines explained by drops in Nike Air and Reebok Zig. Nonetheless, NPD finds that price points in viz-tech remain stable which suggests that the issue is less a result of consumers moving away from viz-tech than brands perhaps not having the flow of new ideas that they had in recent years. Some of that is set to change in H2 of this year as Nike, Adidas, Reebok and Under Armour all plan new launches. NPD sees the decline in viz-tech happening more in New York than Los Angeles because viz-tech indexes much higher there and its consumer insights suggest that New York customers are more fashion-oriented. Interestingly, casual running has remained strong with a 24.2% increase during Q1 to $103.5 million, suggesting that the problem is more in the mall fashion business than other channels.
Specialty store data from Leisure Trends Group covering the running specialty market showed a slight decline in footwear sales in Q1. The decline in the specialty market has ignited something of a debate as to whether it is the result of the weather or a slowing of the trend in technical running. Running specialty stores are saying that there is a significant decline in attendance at major races right now, but other say that participation in these races is being siphoned off into smaller events and more specialized events like Muddy Buddys. It does bear watching over the next few quarters to see if the slowdown in Q1 was strictly related to the weather or if it indicates a more broad-based softening in a business that has shown solid, steady growth.
Written by Nicolas Yang
