The solar market saw many unexpected events in 2012. Solar makers believe in 2013, the Europe market will see adjustments such as Germany installations declining to government-planned levels and France increasing incentives. Market observers are optimistic about low-installation cost and non-FIT (feed-in-tariff) business models taking off in Europe. The Asia market is expected to show healthy growth with the Japan market heating up in the first quarter followed by the markets in China and Thailand.
Germany is likely to remain as the world's largest solar market with around 7.5GW of installation in 2012. Nevertheless, many Germany-based solar firms believe installations in 2013 will decline, mainly because there will be no installation subsidies for large-size solar PV systems. Germany's solar market will focus on rooftop systems in 2013, during which installations are likely to be between 2.5-3.5GW, falling within the range targeted by the government. Furthermore, due to significant decreases in installation costs, the non-FIT business model is likely to show slight growth in 2013.
In addition, France plans to raise the subsidy limit from 500MW to 1GW in 2013 and simplifies the FIT subsidy program. Meanwhile, Italy has begun to increase subsidies for solar products that are made in the EU. Firms that use made-in-EU products from the crystal slicing, cell and module sectors can obtain an extra 5% subsidy. An extra 10% subsidy can be obtained by firms that use made-in-EU products from any of the aforementioned sectors and work with crystal growing and slicing service suppliers in Europe.
The US market is expected to see demand return in the first quarter of 2013.
Japan currently has the biggest demand among all Asia markets and may cut the JPY42/kWh (US$0.47/kWh) FIT in March. There has been a demand surge recently in Japan due to the possible incentive cut and this demand has been attracting many international investors.
China's domestic solar demand is expected to grow in 2013 due to strong effort from the government. However, China's subsidy programs are complicated and international firms are unlikely to benefit. Nonetheless, rising domestic demand will likely help China-based solar firms as their international distribution channels shrink.
