Solar photovoltaic (PV) demand is poised for explosive growth in 2014, and is set to reach 49GW, up from 36GW in 2013, according to findings from Solarbuzz.
"The solar PV industry has reached a critical tipping point, with end-market demand hitting record levels almost every quarter," said Finlay Colville, VP at Solarbuzz. "This growth is being driven by leading module suppliers and project developers that returned to profitability during 2013, and which have now established highly-effective global sales and marketing networks."
The fourth quarter of 2013 will be another record quarter for the solar PV industry, exceeding the 12GW barrier for the first time ever. Furthermore, demand in first-quarter 2014 will also achieve record-breaking status, as the strongest first-quarter ever seen by the PV industry.
Over the six-month period from October 2013 to March 2014, the solar PV industry will install almost 22GW, which is greater than all the solar PV installations that occurred between 2005-2009, during the previous high-growth phase of the industry that was driven by the Europe market.
This 22GW of demand is equivalent to 120MW of solar PV installed every day for six months, and equates to one new 5MW solar farm being completed every hour of the day.
The record solar PV demand in fourth-quarter 2013 is heavily weighted towards the three leading countries for end-market demand today: China, Japan, and the US. Two-thirds of all solar panels installed in the fourth quarter will be located in China, Japan, and the US, the firm said.
Additionally, the new record level of demand in 2014, along with increased outsourcing of solar PV wafers, cells, and modules to keep up with end-market growth, will drive production utilization rates above 90% for tier-1 makers.
By the end of 2014, many of the leading China crystalline silicon module suppliers will be reporting silicon and non-silicon costs below US$0.50 per watt. The resulting growth in operating margins will then provide a solid foundation upon which to guide new capacity additions that have been on hold now for 18 months, added Solarbuzz.
"Manufacturing over-capacity and pricing erosion within the PV industry was previously a key factor in limiting annual growth to 10-20% between 2011-2013," added Colville. "With a more stable pricing environment and the prospects of increased end-market globalization, Solarbuzz forecasts a return to annual growth above 30% for the PV industry in 2014."
