The global apparent steel demand for 2014 will increase by two percent to 1.56 billion metric tons, following a growth of 3.8 percent in 2013, according to the short range outlook presented at the 48th annual meeting of the World Steel Association (worldsteel) held in Moscow on October 6. In 2015, worldsteel forecasts that world steel demand will grow by another two percent, reaching 1.59 billion mt.
Hans Jürgen Kerkhoff, chairman of the worldsteel Economics Committee said that "the positive momentum in global steel demand seen in the second half of 2013 abated in 2014 with weaker than expected performance in the emerging and developing economies", lowering worldsteel's steel demand growth figure compared to forecast released in April this year. Mr. Kerkhoff stated that the slowdown in China's apparent steel demand reflecting the structural transformation of the economy has contributed significantly to lower global growth projection.
"We have also seen major slowdown in South America and the CIS countries due to falling commodity prices, structural constraints and geopolitical tensions. In contrast, the developed economies fared well this yea. Recoveries in the EU, the US and Japan are expected to be stronger than previously thought, but not strong enough to offset the slowdown in the emerging economies. In 2015, we expect steel demand growth in developed economies to moderate, while we project growth in the emerging and developing economies to pick up. In China rebalancing will continue to act as a drag in steel demand", said Mr. Kerkhoff.
Regarding the conflict in the eastern part of Ukraine, worldsteel expects the country's apparent steel use to decline by 19 percent this year and assuming a stabilization of the political situation, CIS steel demand is expected to grow by 1.9 percent in 2015.
Mr. Kerkhoff concluded that the overall apparent steel use in the developed economies will register over four percent growth in 2014, but then slows to 1.7 percent in 2015, adding that the emerging and developing economies excluding China will grow by 1.7 percent in 2014, followed by a rebound of 4.7 percent growth in 2015.
