World oil demand will rise by 1.1% this year to 90.26 million barrels a day, with gains coming from countries outside of the major industrialized nations, a U.S. government forecast said Tuesday.
The Energy Information Administration said the trend will continue in 2014, when developing nations fuel a 1.3% increase in demand to 91.43 million barrels a day.
The EIA continues to predict that next year, oil demand from nations outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will top consumption in the industrialized nations as demand slips in Europe and Japan and posts slim gains in the U.S.
Oil demand from China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer after the U.S., is expected to account for about 40% of global growth on average in this year and next.
China's oil demand is expected to rise 4%, or 410,000 barrels a day, this year, to 10.69 million barrels a day. An expected 4.1% rise next year will boost 2014 demand by 440,000 barrels a day, to 11.13 million barrels a day. The EIA expects demand growth across all non-OECD regions.
"China's steady growth in oil demand has led it to become the world's largest net oil importer," topping declining U.S. levels in September, the EIA said, adding it expects the trend to continue through 2014.
As recently as 2012, OECD demand topped that of the developing world by 2.7 million barrels a day. But in 2014, non-OECD demand will overtake OECD oil use by 140,000 barrels a day, the EIA projects.
U.S. oil use is expected to inch up by 0.9%, or 170,000 barrels a day, to 18.65 million barrels a day this year and post a 0.7% rise to 18.68 million barrels a day in 2014.
Demand in OECD Europe is expected to drop 1.6% this year and 1.1% in 2014, while Japanese oil use declines by 3.2% this year and 2.2% next year.
Total commercial oil inventories in OECD nations are expected to drop, the EIA said. Inventories will be sufficient to cover 56 days of demand at both the 2013 and 2014, the EIA projects. At the end of 2012, inventories were enough to meet 58 days of demand.
Total oil and liquid fuels output from countries outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to rise by around 1.5 million barrels a day in 2013 and 2014, exceeding the expected rises in global oil demand.
Rising output from U.S. shale oil fields will lead the gains, with production expected to rise by 980,000 barrels a day in both 2013 and 2014. At 8.45 million barrels a day, 2014 U.S. output is expected to reach its highest level since 1986. Increased crude oil output from stepped up use of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques continues to cut the need for U.S. oil imports.
The EIA projects U.S. net crude oil imports will drop 950,000 barrels a day to 7.48 million barrels a day this year, nearly identical to expected crude oil output of 7.47 million barrels a day. In 2014, net crude imports are expected to slump 910,000 barrels a day to 6.57 million barrels a day, about 1.9 million barrels a day less than the projected crude oil output level.
Total net imports of crude oil and refined products, such as gasoline and diesel fuel, are expected to fall 16.5% this year to an average of 6.19 million barrels a day, and drop by a further 14.2% next year. At a forecast level of 5.31 million barrels a day in 2014, net imports are expected to be the lowest since 1985, well below the peak of 12.55 million barrels a day in 2005.
