Total solar photovoltaic (PV) demand from the five leading Asia Pacific (APAC) markets – China, Japan, India, Australia and Thailand – is forecast to reach 17.2GW during the second half of 2014, almost 60% of global solar PV demand, according to findings from Solarbuzz.
While solar power has been growing across the APAC region, 95% of the demand in 2014 is coming from the top-five countries. According to Ray Lian, senior analyst at NPD Solarbuzz, "China, Japan, India, Australia, and Thailand are forecast to rank in the top-10 global PV markets. China and Japan are dominating demand, with about half of all new PV capacity added in 2014."
Seasonally strong demand from China is responsible for the majority of share gains in the APAC region during the second half. About 80% of PV demand in China is forecast to come from ground-mounted projects; however, the commercial rooftop market segment is experiencing slower growth than the China government had hoped for. The National Energy Administration has recently announced new policies to support development of distributed generation PV projects, especially rooftop projects.
Within Japan, the pipeline of approved PV projects stands at 59GW; however, actual demand from Japan is forecast to exceed 5GW in the second half, due to a range of factors including qualified land resources, financing, and grid connectivity. "Falling PV system costs, together with high feed-in tariff rates, continue to provide attractive PV project economics within the Japan PV market," according to Holly Hu, analyst at Solarbuzz. "While the Japan government reviews the progress of the approved project pipeline, PV installations will continue to accelerate quickly, during the next few quarters."
India, Australia, and Thailand are experiencing greater challenges. "The India government recently opened the bidding process for PV projects, under the country's National Solar Mission Phase II Batch II; however, policy uncertainties have delayed solar PV demand in India for the past six months," Hu said. "On a positive note, the India government recently avoided potential problems that may have arisen if anti-dumping duties had been imposed on imported China silicon-based PV modules."
Annual demand from Australia and Thailand is forecast to decline in 2014, due in part to pending renewable-energy policy changes and investor uncertainty; however, a year-end boost is expected in the large-scale ground-mount segment in Australia. Ground-mounted projects at Nyngan and Broken Hill in New South Wales, developed by AGL/First Solar, are expected to have a total nominal capacity of 155MW of alternating current (MWAC).
Outside the major solar PV markets in the APAC region, more countries in Southeast Asia are starting to develop solar PV capabilities, including the Philippines and Indonesia. In Pakistan, the first 100MW phase of the 1GW Quaid-e-Azam solar projects has also started installation, the firm added.
