Global solar installations are forecast to exceed 35GW in 2013, equivalent to growth of 12%, according to IHS. Global solar installations in 2012 grew 14% on year to reach 31.4GW.
Contrary to many other more pessimistic predictions for the industry, IHS foresees the solar industry to continue along its double-digit growth path in 2013 and to exceed 35GW for the first time.
"It is quite often to see pessimistic forecasts at the start of each year for solar installations, due to a seasonal slowdown and talks of major incentive cuts as Europe reassesses its solar policy typically after yet another year of record growth," said Ash Sharma, senior director of solar research at IHS. "However, IHS' analysis of more than 60 countries around the world shows that demand outside of Europe will more than compensate for the fall in the Continent, and installations will go on at any rate to hit 35GW this year."
Asia surged in the fourth quarter of 2012 and installed more than 4GW during the period, an amount close to half the global total. Asia's importance to the global solar market is predicted to continue, according to IHS, and Asia in 2013 will become the largest region for solar installations for the first time in 10 years. Solar installations in Asia are forecast to grow to 15GW this year, in the process exceeding Europe, which is predicted to drop to 13GW.
For the China market, however, IHS is less optimistic than others on likely installations for that country in 2013.
"IHS predicts China will install at least 6GW of new solar capacity this year," noted Sharma. "This is some way lower than the 10GW figure that has been widely circulated around the industry as China's target for 2013. The continued issue of grid-connecting megawatt-scale solar PV projects, as well as delays in developers receiving feed-in-tariff (FIT) payments, is likely to hold back China from installing more this year. Even so, a dwindling European market and restrictions on China-made modules could well drive higher domestic installations."
Although IHS confirmed that global solar installations surged past 31GW last year, its analysis showed that grid-connected solar capacity was actually lower than 30GW.
"When analyzing solar demand, some people talk of installations while others talk of connections. This often causes confusion, and so IHS tracks both to fully understand the market dynamics," Sharma noted. "Connections were lower in 2012 than installations, owing to lengthy delays in connecting major projects in countries such as China and India. For instance, up to 2.5GW of solar PV projects were completed but not connected to the grid at the end of 2012 in China".
IHS analysis showed that global solar connections in 2012 amounted to just over 27GW.
While Europe accounted for 70% of solar installations in 2011, IHS found that this fell to 57% in 2012 and is predicted to slide further to 37% in 2013, especially as the region becomes outflanked by Asia. Almost all of Europe's so-called mature solar markets are predicted to decline in 2013 - a development forecast to take place despite bright spots of growth in countries such as the UK, Turkey and the Netherlands. As a result, IHS predicts that installations in Europe will fall from 18GW in 2012 to 13GW in 2013.
"While hopes in the past could have been pinned on Germany or Italy - which accounted for nearly two-thirds of European installations in 2012 - growth here looks impossible," Sharma said. "Changes to Germany's EEG and Italy's Conto Energia are already in place, and a contraction in these two big markets is predicted in 2013. Moreover, looming antidumping measures against China-based manufacturers are taking their toll on Europe, resulting in price increases and additional registration paperwork that will further temper solar demand this year."
Despite Europe's dramatic decline in 2013, IHS maintains that double-digit growth will occur again in global installations. Growth rates of 250%, 50% and 65% are forecast for Middle-East & Africa, Americas, and Asia respectively, supporting global growth, but continuing the industry's geographic fragmentation.
