But passing the half-way mark of this interim profit season, we now have proof that his real error was putting a super-profits tax on the wrong industry.
While profits were sliding at Rio Tinto, OZ Minerals and Wesfarmers' coal division, Commonwealth Bank of Australia rolled out another record profit that sent an already lofty share price into orbit. National Australia Bank and ANZ joined in with passable, if not exactly buoyant, quarterly updates.
Swan really should have pushed harder for a bank super-profits tax if he wanted to plug a budget deficit, as their earnings have proved far more reliable than those of the big miners.
What's more, their shares have been doing wonders for everybody's super balances.
The bare 1 per cent lift in CBA's statutory profit -- or a more respectable 6 per cent rise in cash profit to $3.8 billion -- was all investors needed to send the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index, and the oft-neglected All Ords, above 5000 for the first time in three years.
CBA chief executive Ian Narev left open the possibility his bank could cut rates outside the ritual of official interest rate movements dictated by the Reserve Bank. But he also noted that the job of a bank chief executive was a messy one, trying to balance the interests of shareholders, customers, staff and regulators. Whatever he does, someone will be unhappy with the change.
Given his boast that customer satisfaction has never been higher and the fact that CBA shares added another $2.20 for the week to close at $67.03 on Friday, the market appears to be saying not much needs to change at the nation's biggest bank.
Encouragingly, as the results rolled in on Wednesday and Thursday, the market held above 5000, adding another 33 points before running out of puff yesterday and giving back 3 points to end the week at 5033. A clearing of the decks loss by new Rio Tinto boss Sam Walsh and nagging concerns about interest margins in the institutional business of ANZ were the main culprits.
But investors have now got a much broader sample of the earnings across the market, albeit only 40 of the 180 top stocks scheduled to report have done so. And so far they like what they see.
Investors are finally getting the "E"s that they need from companies to justify the rise in the "P"s (for price) that they have seen and the near one-third expansion in the "PE" (price-earnings) ratio that has happened as the market got higher through the second half of 2012 and into the new year.
UBS head of Australian distribution George Kanaan made the point that even at 13.5 times the PE ratio for the market is still below its 14.5 long-term average. He expects the market to keep pushing back towards that level, suggesting 5500 points on the index by the year end.
His equity strategist David Cassidy says the risk to valuation is skewed to the upside.
"It is not unusual for the market's PE to rise above average levels as investors sense a cyclical earnings recovery," Cassidy wrote to clients.
"Additionally, a concerted asset allocation shift out of fixed interest and into equities on relative-value grounds could push equity valuations up further still."
In Melbourne, where the $450bn self-managed super fund movement had gathered for an annual conference, there was a lot of talk about the market's rise.
But Peter Fry of Fry and Associates is cautious. "It has been interesting see the CEO and chairman's comments in the reports. They are saying, 'Yes, it has been a hard year and a tough year on our prices and we have done all this restructuring.
"But their actual economic outlook for the next 12 months has not been as confident as strong as what it was 12 months ago, so that is where the softening (in the market) in the next six months will come, because the changes in interest rates is probably more designed to push the housing market, not necessarily the economy.
Kanaan thought Leighton Holdings and JB Hi-Fi were the standout results -- even if the raw numbers don't tell an eye-popping story. The electronics retailer eked out a 2.6 per cent rise in revenue and a 3.1 per cent rise in net profit -- which are hardly figures to write home about. But in the words of one of Kanaan's colleagues, the stock had been "priced for death" by short sellers given declining same store sales over recent years and the familiar tale of cautious consumers and Apple's domination. But JB Hi-Fi stock popped 17 per cent higher as short sellers raced to cover their position on news that armageddon was postponed.
Ditto Leighton, which has been under the pump for years amid management and board upheaval, accounting issues and project writedowns. A $448 million profit -- a modest return on $23.1bn of revenue, but a vast improvement on the $228m loss of a year earlier -- popped the share price 11 per cent higher.
Still, it's not a forgiving market for those who don't deliver. Gloves and condoms maker Ansell, standard bearer SAI Global and hearing aid manufacturer Cochlear felt the wrath of investors for not delivering when their shares were priced for perfection.
Cochlear's stock was smacked down 9 per cent when it delivered a $77.2m profit that was short of the $81.2m foreshadowed in consensus estimates.
Ansell lost as much as $1.50 in the initial reaction to a 15.5 per cent fall in first half profit. SAI Global missed expectations and dropped 15.5 per cent.
It may be that there is an emerging theme. As the Treasurer -- now in Moscow for Group of 20 meeting -- says, our economy has pulled through the past five years in terrific shape, particularly compared with other Western economies.
It's the stocks exposed to those struggling economic giants like Europe and the US that are making heavy weather of it at the moment. The strong dollar is working against them and their customers have been cutting back. At Ansell it was cuts to automotive manufacturing shifts that dented sales of industrial gloves.
For Cochlear, it has been a product recall and the prospect of competitors in the US and europe launching new products that worries analysts and investors. It's past the half-way mark of reporting season and the pace of reporting picks up considerably next week, with sector leaders reporting on most days, unlike the two-day wonder of the week just passed.
Industrial stocks have been pegged as the best growth sector for this season amid falls by the miners and utility-like returns from the financials, and by the end of the week investors should know whether the hype is justified.
There are results for Amcor and BlueScope Steel on Monday, Asciano, Coca Cola Amatil and and Arrium on Tuesday, Toll Holdings on Wednesday, Brambles on Thursday and Transpacific on Friday.
BHP Billiton reports on Wednesday and should give investors a broader view of how resources are faring than did the Rio Tinto result, which was dominated by iron ore earnings and aluminium writedowns. Fortescue reports alongside the Big Australian.
