Shared autonomous vehicles can pull down automobile sales in the US by 40% over the next 25 years, a trend capable of forcing majors General Motors (GM) and Ford cut output by more than half.
Shared autonomous vehicles refer to "robot taxis" that can be controlled by a smartphone.
The report by Barclays analyst quoted in Bloomberg says less than 100 million cars would be plying on US roads by then, reflecting a fall of 60% from the current count.
Even though personal ownership of cars and trucks are not ruled out, the driverless vehicles are expected to throw open many options before a given family.
Similarly, annual sales is likely to suffer 40% fall and drop to 9.5 million.
"GM and Ford would need to reduce North American production by up to 68% and 58%, respectively," said the report.
With driverless cars leaving the automobile industry in ferment, the market for such vehicles is expected to grow to $42b by 2025 and they are likely to contribute to 25% of the total sales by 2035, the Boston Consulting Group estimated.
GM seems unruffled by such projections, while Ford stayed away from making any comments.
GM spokesman Jim Cain said: "We've looked over the horizon and contemplated how technology may change the market...Our designers, scientists and engineers are working at the cutting edge, and we're confident GM will be very successful."
Image: A driverless car operating on a testing path. Photo: courtesy by Steve Jurvetson via Wikipedia.
