U.S. cotton demand for 2013/14 is reduced 500,000 bales this month, a change that offsets the lower crop forecast. U.S. demand is projected at 14.5 million bales or 15 percent below the 2012/13 estimate.
In addition to lower U.S. supplies in 2013/14, a lower world trade—particularly imports by China—is expected to contribute to the lower U.S. export forecast. In 2013/14, the U.S. share of world trade is projected at about 29 percent, similar to 2012/13. U.S. cotton exports are forecast at 11.0 million bales in 2013/14, contributing about 76 percent of total demand.
Mill use accounts for the remaining 24 percent, or 3.5 million bales. Based on these supply and demand estimates, U.S. ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at a relatively low 2.6 million bales, 1.0 million bales below the beginning level and similar to 2010/11.
The implied stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 18 percent, the second lowest in a decade. The forecast for the 2013/14 U.S. average farm price is expected to range between 73 and 93 cents per pound, with the midpoint of this range 11 cents above the 2012/13 estimate of 72 cents per pound.
