China's manmade fibres capacity has been growing until quite recently at an average 15% a year; well in excess of global demand which over the period 2000-10 grew on average at just under 5%.
Over this period, while Chinese capacity was growing so rapidly, the rest of the world experienced capacity decline at 1.3% a year. Outside China only two products which hardly exist there, lyocell staple and polyester BCF carpet yarn, saw measurable growth; at 3.4% and 25% respectively. In other fibre types, such as acrylic staple, nylon textile filament and nylon staple, there was distinct decline, in the range 5-10% a year.
Within China, viscose staple grew over the decade at nearly 14% a year, nylon textile filament at 16%, nylon BCF (albeit off a very low base) at 18%, polyester textile filament at 15%, polyester industrial filament at 31%, polyester staple at 16% and spandex at an astonishing 38%.
As part of the PCI Fibres Conference 2013 to be held 7/8 November at the JW Marriott Hotel in Hong Kong, a team of industry specialists from the PCI Consulting Group will conduct a Workshop to discuss this apparently uneven development of fibres capacity, and consider whether the pattern of growth is likely to change, and to what effect.
Since 2010 a number of new plants have been installed and others are in construction or advanced planning. It is already possible to determine the broad pattern for the period 2010-15. Capacity growth in China is expected to ease back in this period to 10% a year, while elsewhere there are signs of some expansion, at a rate of just over 3%, led in particular by India, but also some parts of South East Asia.
But even the slower rate expected for China has a major impact on the rest of the world. In scale, China added nearly 53 million tons of manmade fibres capacity over 2000-10 (while the rest of the world lost nearly 6 million). In only half that time, from 2010 to 2015, China is forecast to add another 45 million tons per year (while elsewhere 7 million is added). Expansion in China is a little slower now, but it will continue to influence operations in other markets; although affecting the various fibre types differently. China will continue to set the pace in nylon textile filament, in polyester textile filament and in polyester industrial filament; but in other fibres there is expected to be a more even global expansion. How all this change affects the various points along the supply chain will be at the heart of the PCI Fibres Conference Workshop.
