High-concentrating photovoltaics(HCPV)-a decades-old technology to tap more of the sun's energy than other solar methods-is poised to finally hit its stride,with a compound annual growth rate(CAGR)of 31%until 2017,according to Lux Research's report'Putting High-Concentrating Photovoltaics into Focus'(part of the Lux Research Solar Systems Intelligence service).
Driven by emerging markets with high solar resources,the installed capacity for HCPV will grow to 697MW in 2017,creating a system market worth$1.6bn and a module market worth$700m(reaching a system price of$2.33 per Watt).
"HCPV has had very little success installing commercial systems to date,"says Lux Research associate Ed Cahill(lead author of the report)."However,as markets shift due to subsidy cuts-from distributed installations in low-DNI(direct normal irradiance)environments such as Germany to large installations in high-DNI environments such as India-expect HCPV to grow at a faster rate than competing technologies,"he adds.
Lux Research analysts evaluated the emerging solar landscape and the prospects for HCPV,which uses optics such as lenses to concentrate a large amount of sunlight onto a small area of ultra-high-efficiency photovoltaic cells.Their findings include the following:
- HCPV costs are coming down.HCPV systems will turn cost competitive with single-axis-tracked mc-Si(multi-crystalline silicon)in 2017,closing a 33%and 20%gap with fixed and tracked mc-Si systems,respectively.It also will gain cost parity with mc-Si for high-DNI,utility-scale projects in 2018.The cuts will come through lower shipping and labor costs,besides economies of scale.
- Funding is key to success.Well funded companies that expand intelligently will drive the HCPV market.For example,HCPV pioneer Amonix expanded too soon and too fast and has had to cut back;it is now struggling,which leaves the door open for emerging players such as Soitec,SunCore and SolFocus.
- Developers are racing to build the most efficient solar cell.With Solar Junction's record 43.5%-efficient cell and Spectrolab and Emcore scrambling to develop inverted metamorphic cells,the race to manufacture the most efficient solar cell is heating up.A steady roadmap to 45%efficiency in five years and 50%efficiency in 10 years is feasible,concludes Lux.
