World cotton trade is projected at 38.4 million bales in 2013/14, 18 percent below last season’s record of nearly 46.7 million bales.
The decrease is attributable to the anticipated reduction in China’s import demand from an estimated 20.3 million bales in 2012/13 to 11 million bales in 2013/14. Stable mill demand and rising stocks in China are expected to help reduce their import needs to its lowest in four seasons.
However, increases in a number of countries will help offset a portion of China’s decline. These countries include Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey, and Thailand, where cotton consumption is expected to rise in 2013/14.
In 2013/14, reduced import demand is expected to keep shipments lower for most exporters.
In addition to the decline seen for the United States, considerable declines are seen for India, Australia, and Brazil, where exports are forecast at 6.3 million bales (down 1.3 million), 4.3 million bales (down 1.7 million), and 2.6 million bales (down 1.7 million), respectively. For Australia and Brazil, sharply lower beginning stocks result in lower exportable supplies.
