The arrivals are dwindling in most of the States and season seems to be coming to a close. Approximately 3 Crore 19 lakh bales have arrived in the market as per trade sources. CCI seems to be the best source for good cotton especially in the Andhra Pradesh region at the moment at around Rs.41,000/-Spot per candy.
Most of the North Mills are procuring from Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh due to their proximity from these centres to save lorry freights while the South Mills are sourcing from CCI in Andhra Pradesh.
The Indian rupee has fallen to nearly Rs.59/- to a dollar thereby making import of cotton unfeasable and export of yarn an attractive proposition to the Textile Mills. Monsoon which is main deciding factor for Farming operations have begun on time and now spreads across the arable areas.
Prospects of a normal monsoon are bright. Cotton seed distribution is in progress. Mostly Bt seeds are in demand by Farmers. Farmers group is also worried on the increased cost of inputs like seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, labour and the funds crunch. Demand for cotton lint is persisting. Monsoon will decide the Farmers mood to decide the area.
PUNJAB, HARYANA AND RAJASTHAN:
Daily kappas (seed cotton) arrivals have dropped to approximately 1500 bales. Cotton sowing is almost complete in this region. Prices for good quality J-34 R/g from Punjab is Rs.4170/- per maund spot, while in Haryana and Rajasthan good quality J-34 R/g is priced at Rs.4070/- per maund spot. Bengal Desi S/g is quoted at Rs.3850/- per maund spot. Area sown by cotton is yet to be assessed. Canal water is boon for irrigation in this belt. Monsoon predictions are favourable.
GUJARAT:
Daily cotton arrivals are approximately 8000 bales and arrival of rains in many parts of Gujarat are helpful for the Farmers to prepare to sow cotton for the new season. Prices for good quality S-6 is Rs.39,800/-Spot per candy while good quality V-797 r/g was priced at Rs.27,500/-Spot per candy. Saurashtra area experienced good rain.
Cotton seed sales are brisk. S.6 spot rates moved up from Rs.39,000 /cdy spot to Rs.40,500 /cdy spot from middle of this fortnight, due to various factors like firm ICE Futures, Good demand from Southern Mills due to improved yarn Market conditions, both in Local and Export (Due to devaluation of Rupee) and less arrival of kappas, from the beginning of this fortnight.
Quality is the constraint at present in S.6, due to deterioration in both Staple length and Micronaire. V.797 prices were ruling at around Rs.27,500 to Rs.28,000/cdy spot. In Gujarat, arrival of monsoon in proper time, did not have any impact on prices till now, which usually, witness a bearish trend, due to factors mentioned above besides, lower crop estimated for the current season.
MAHARASHTRA:
Daily kappas arrivals have dropped to 5000 bales approximately. Monsoon has set in many parts of coastal Maharashtra and many parts of Marathwada and Khandesh. Some showers have been experienced in Vidharbh area too. Farmers may start sowing for the new season shortly if nature supports in the same manner.
Good quality Mech-1 of 29mm was priced at Rs.39,500/-Spot per candy. while low micronaire cotton was priced at Rs.37,000/-Spot per candy. Farmers began their preparations also releasing their carry over stocks. Due to good rains, Farmers have option to switch over to other crops like soya beans and macca over and above cotton.
MADHYA PRADESH:
Good quality Dch-32 was quoted at Rs.51,000/- Spot per candy while good bunny was priced at Rs.39,500/ -Spot. There has been a few mild pre monsoon showers and if this continues it would be helpful to the Farmers to start the sowing for the coming season. Land preparations are brisk as machine ploughing is more popular. Cotton area may not dwindle as per cotton experts.
In M.P DCH 32, rates started moving up from Rs.49,500/cdy to Rs.50,500 / candy spot from the beginning of this fortnight, due to overall demand for quality lots. Bunny 29mm quality rates are also in the upward trend, in consonance with rates prevailing in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Bunny rates moved up by Rs.500 to Rs.600 /cdy spot and ruling at Rs.39,500/cdy spot for 29mm quality.
ANDHRA PARDESH
Monsoon has arrived in Andhra Pradesh and parts of Adilabad in the Northern side to Guntur in the Southern side have received rainfall and Farmers may start sowing for the new season shortly if nature supports consistently. It is reported that sowing of cotton may reduce this season as Farmers may shift to other crops.
Prices of good quality 29mm Bunny in Adilabad was Rs.39,500/-Spot while good quality CCI lots were being purchased by a lot of South and local Mills at Rs.41,000/-Spot per candy. Andhra pradesh Govt. is working on the distribution prices of Cotton seeds to ease the market sentiments and encourage seeds sale. Farmers are demanding for a rational approach along with decentralization of quality seed distribution.
KARNATAKA:
Parts of Karnataka bordering Goa and North Karnataka upto Bijapur and South Karnataka upto Mysore have received good rainfall consistently and Farmers have started sowing for the new cotton season. In North Karnataka there is a drop of 10% in sowings till now and may be compensated by good yield as some Farmers have shifted their sowing to Corn.
Areas like Bailhongal are in need of some more rains to help sowing for the new season. Parts of Raichur,Gulbarga and areas bordering Andhra Pradesh have also received good rains and cotton seed sales have also gone up in this belt as many of the areas here have canal irrigation from river Krishna and river Tungabhadra.
So a reasonable amount of rainfall can help Farmers to start sowing for the new season. Upper Krishna Project [UKP] project areas of around 4 lakh acres have no moisture stress. Prices for good quality 30mm bunny stock lots is Rs.42,000/-Spot per candy and good DCH-32 is quoted at Rs.52,000/-Spot per candy. Jayadhar was quoted at Rs.32,000/-Spot per candy.
TAMILNADU:
Seed companies have reported an increase of 20% in sales of cotton seeds as many Farmers near Tirunelveli, Trichy due to lack of water, have shifted to cotton. So it is a good sign for Mills in Tamilnadu as Farmers are slowly shifting to cotton due to natural cirumstances as more cotton will be available to them locally and they can save in transportation costs.
If Farmers get good kappas prices like in the last two seasons, then they may consisently sow cotton in Tamilnadu. Seed cotton arrivals are on in rice fallow districts of Thanjavur/Thiruvarur and Nagapattinam. Arrivals also on in Perambalur, Attur and Konganapuram. Boothappadi, Andhiyur and Moolanur will start by month end. Insufficient rain in cotton tracts delays the sowing. Ruling kappas prices are fair. Mills demand for cotton continued as power supply situation is improving.
INTERNATIONAL:
The New York futures market after dropping to 81.5 cents per lbs seems to be bouncing back to around 86 cents. Approximately 18 lakh bales have been reported by trade sources to be booked for imports by Indian Textile Mills.
Only a part of the shipments have arrived and the remaining quantity may become unviable for the Indian Mills to import due to the drastic fall in the rupee against the dollar. ICAC has projected a fall in area and cotton production at the Global level.
China also continued to release its cotton stock. In China also Cotton sowing area may dwindle and planting is almost over. U.S acreage is also down by 30% in a decade. India may overtake Chinese position in cotton. Bangladesh also plans for buffer stock in cotton to meet the steady demand. In Pakistan arrivals have begun. The basic fundamentals are strong enough to sustain Global area.
