Brazilian cotton output might again reduce in the 2014/15 crop, but would still be close to the average registered over the last 11 seasons, says the latest fortnightly report of CEPEA.
“In worldwide terms, a supply decrease is expected for the third time in a row, but despite that, ending stocks might continue to increase,” it adds.
It informs “This scenario may limit the increase of quotes, which might operate lower than the nominal average over the last 11 years.”
In Brazil, prices will depend on the export parity in international price, export costs and exchange rate ratio and mainly on the volume effectively shipped, which will determine the domestic surplus.
Producers who are able to access the global market might obtain remunerative prices, especially if the exchange rate is higher than that observed in December.
Again, cotton might lose room in the Brazilian 2014/15 season, which tends to be a certain decision when seen from a producers’ point of view.
Since mid-2014, regional quotes are below the official price floor, and data indicates a tight situation, when revenue and costs of the new season are compared.
According to CEPEA, it expects negative profitability of 7.5 per cent, when comparing production costs in November 2014, with value of export contracts to deliver in September 2015.
It however indicates that when comparing the same parameters like cost of inputs in November 2014 to export value in September 2014, the profitability was 6 per cent positive.
“In spite of possible smaller area and production, considering prices, exports will be a major market definer in 2015, which can change the benefit/cost ratio,” the agency observes.
On one hand, exports favour the reduction of domestic surplus, and on the other hand, price levels of export contracts might guarantee satisfactory revenue, depending also on the exchange rate.
CONAB data indicates that the planted area in Brazil might reduce 10.4 per cent on average in 2014/15, to roughly 1 million hectares.
The average yield considered up until now is 1,532 kilos per hectare, 0.9 per cent smaller, resulting in a production of 1.54 million tons, against 1.73 million tons in the season before.
This supply, along with initial stocks of 519,600 tons and imports of 18,000 tons will push up to 2.08 million tons the domestic availability for 2015, according to CONAB data.
“From this amount, domestic consumption might absorb 850,000 tons,” it noted.
Therefore, the surplus would be 1.23 million tons. As a result, it will be necessary to export major volumes, in order for domestic quotes to not drop significantly.
From the last five crop-years, this one will be the fourth in which domestic surplus might surpass 1.2 million tons. In the previous three, exports totaled more than 700,000 tons. (AR)
