The overall market for lamps will rise from $17.9bn now to peak at $21.2bn in 2018 before shrinking to $16bn by 2022, forecasts market research firm Strategies Unlimited in its latest annual report ‘The Worldwide Market for Lamps’ (which covers the market for A, reflector, MR16 and tube lamps).
The short-term growth and subsequent fall is due to the increased penetration of LED lamps into all applications, notes the firm. LED lamp revenues are expected to more than double from $7bn in 2014 to almost $15bn in 2019. “While all LED lamp markets are forecasted to have a positive CAGR [compound annual growth rate] from 2014 through 2022, most will peak before the end of the decade as socket saturation from these long-lived products will decrease the overall global replacement lamp market,” says research director Philip Smallwood.
The report gives insight into the total lighting market through 2022 by covering all technologies, including incandescent, halogen CFL, fluorescent and LED, to get a better understanding of how LED lamps are poised to change the lighting landscape.
Government regulations are the factor with the largest impact on the lamp market today, notes Strategies Unlimited. The phasing out or banning of incandescent lamps is pushing the general population to make a choice about illumination technology. “Without these regulations, I would find it difficult to believe that the advancements in LED lamps that we are seeing today would be taking place at such an accelerated pace,” says Smallwood. “The technological feat of mimicking incandescent lamps almost perfectly is impressive, but the precipitous fall in price is astounding.”
The most important theme from the report is that companies must adapt to a changing landscape to survive, notes the firm. While the market for LED lamps is poised to see growth, the market for all other technologies is expected to have a -14% CAGR during the same period. While there might be a short-term gain for more efficient incumbent technologies (mainly CFL and halogen), in the long term LED lighting will eventually be crowned king, concludes the report.
