ICE Cotton gradually moved higher earlier this week supported by bullish views on the market, but the supply & demand report released kept the market in check, and the week ended at a slightly lower level. The week’s high was posted at 87.11 basis Z3.
Ending stocks for both world and U.S. rose - ending stocks for the world rose to 94.34 million stat bales, up from last month’s 92.49, while ending stocks for the U.S. rose to 2.9 million bales, up from last month’s 2.6. The increase in the world stocks paired with the possible policy change on stockpiling in China was enough to cool the market down for the rest of the week.
The USD had a major correction this week which allowed commodities to rally higher. The equity markets made new highs and the DJI managed to end the week on a 7 day up trend. This was partly related to some backtracking by the Fed and Bernanke who reinforced the accommodative policy and less emphasis on tapering. For now the markets still feel range bound and cotton is no different.
We are in the middle of the summer energy travel squeeze which has crude in the triple digits. This could impact economic growth for the third quarter and keep us in a sideways pattern. The treasury yield has had a run higher but also looks to be running out of steam. Macro situation remains cautiously friendly.
