The price in the solar supply chain has been relatively stable since the second half of the fourth quarter in 2012. However, due to the anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation on polysilicon firms by the China government, China-based downstream solar firms noted that domestic material pricing is expected to increase.
Pricing in the solar supply chain has been stable, hence firms are hoping to increase price. China-based firms have been seeing increasing losses due to low prices, therefore, many tier-one firms have reached a consensus to stop price competition. This has helped stabilize solar module prices. In addition, upstream pricing of components such as solar cells and solar wafers has been stable as well.
China-based solar firms added that the estimated total annual demand for polysilicon in China's solar supply chain is around 120,000 tons, 50% of which is imported.
If China imposes a 20% customs tax on imported polysilicon, the cost of materials from international firms is likely to increase to US$18/kg.
The anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation in China will limit material supply, helping China-based material firms to push prices back to a more reasonable level. If the average price returns to US$18/kg, this will stop firms with production costs of US$30/kg to revive operations. These firms account for around 85% of all polysilicon firms in China.
