Outside of China, cotton stocks at the end of 2014/15 season are expected to increase for the second consecutive season from 7.5 million tons to 9.5 million tons, which is the largest volume of stocks in the last 35 years, says the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) in its latest release.
World ending stocks are projected up 11 per cent to nearly 22 million tons, at the end of 2014/15. However, China’s ending stocks, after increasing substantially in each of the three previous seasons, are likely to remain stable reaching just over 12 million tons in 2014/15, and would account for 56 per cent of total world stocks.
In China, cotton production is estimated down 7 per cent to 6.4 million tons. This would be sufficient to meet 80 to 90 per cent of demand, particularly as China’s consumption has declined the last four seasons. This year China announced that it was limiting imports to the volume required under its WTO obligations.
Like China, cotton imports are expected to decrease by 13 per cent to 761,000 tons in 2014/15 in Turkey, the world’s third largest importer, due in part to an estimated 11 per cent increase in domestic cotton lint production to 847,000 tons. Cotton consumption is forecast to fall 4 per cent to 1.3 million tons is due to two reasons—mills equipped with old machinery are shut down and cotton’s market share further declining as a result of the price attractiveness of synthetic fibres.
The decline in China’s and Turkey’s imports will affect United States, the world’s largest exporter of cotton. However, demand for high quality machine-picked cotton will help to limit export losses. “In 2014/15, production in the United States is estimated at 3.5 million tons, up 25 per cent from 2013/14, and exports are forecast to increase modestly by 2 per cent to 2.3 million tons. As a result, ending stocks in the United States are likely to increase 58 per cent to just over 1 million tons,” ICAC said.
India, the second largest cotton exporter, is projected to experience a significant decrease in exports this season, as demand from China and Pakistan, two of its three largest buyers, has fallen. Despite a high volume of production estimated at 6.8 million tons, consumption is forecast to increase 4 per cent to 5.2 million tons while production remains stable, resulting in a smaller exportable surplus. Ending stocks in India are expected to increase 40 per cent to 2.4 million tons in 2014/15 after two seasons of contraction.
Despite a 4 per cent reduction in area this year and some losses from flooding, cotton production in Pakistan is estimated up 11 per cent at 2.3 million tons, given the 15 per cent increase in the average yield to 820 kg/ha. Imports by Pakistan are forecast to fall 9 per centto 367,000 tons as the current season’s crop will meet most of its need with imports mostly consisting of longer staple cotton that is not available from domestic producers.
