China's move to slap retaliatory antidumping tariffs on solar polysilicon imported from the US and South Korea will cause only a slight increase in domestic pricing for the material, according to IHS.
The Ministry of Commerce in China this week imposed steep tariffs on US-made solar polysilicon, ranging from 53.3% to 57.0%. Duties for South Korean polysilicon were much lower, starting at 2.4% and rising up to 48.7%.
China's action had been widely expected after the US Department of Commerce in May 2012 announced a preliminary determination in its antidumping investigation of imports of crystalline silicon PV cells from China.
Despite the tariffs, China spot market polysilicon pricing is expected to rise by only 0.6% this month (July 2013), IHS said. Prices will go up by a more significant 6.6% in August, but then will moderate to a 2.3% increase in September, IHS indicated.
"Two factors will mitigate the impact of China's antidumping action on polysilicon pricing in China," said Glenn Gu, senior PV analyst at IHS. "First, the decision leaves open some loopholes that should allow the US and South Korean suppliers to bypass the tariffs. Second, the actual penalties on the South Korean suppliers are expected to be negligible. And because the South Koreans are the major foreign suppliers and competitors for domestic companies in China, these slap-on-the-wrist duties are unlikely to drive up polysilicon pricing very much."
With no major boost in the cost of imports, domestic Chinese polysilicon suppliers are not expected to increase prices to more than CNY140 (US$22.83) per kilogram during the next two months, compared to CNY120-125 per kilogram before the tariffs were imposed, IHS said.
Presidential polysilicon
The major disparity in the level of tariffs for the US and South Korea had been expected for reasons beyond retaliation for the US antidumping action in 2012.
For one, the average price for polysilicon imported from US suppliers is much lower than that of the South Korean suppliers during the investigation period from July 1 through July 30. Because of that, higher tariffs on the US polysilicon were applied as a punitive measurement.
For another, South Korean president Park Geun-hye in June made a diplomatic visit to China. The event turned out to be a smashing success, paving the way for further negotiation on a free trade agreement between the two countries.
Furthermore, senior executives from South Korean polysilicon supplier OCI Company accompanied president Park on her visit. Not coincidentally, OCI was given the lowest tariff rate, at 2.4% - the smallest penalty of all companies affected by the antidumping action.
