According to a Barclays Capital survey of producers,consumers,traders and investors,a total of 75%of players in the Chinese base metals market believe that 1H13 will see better economic conditions than the second half of 2012.Iin a similar survey carried out in May,only 61%expected economic conditions to improve in the next six months.
The percentage of Barclays clients expecting conditions to worsen in 1H13 fell to just 4%from 20%in the May survey.
The majority of market players are,however,expecting more modest growth rates,with 86%expecting China's GDP to grow between 7%and 8%in 2013,according to the survey,which was carried out at a commodities seminar in Guilin,China,the week of Dec 10-14.
A total of 12%of survey respondents said they are fully stocked or overstocked,down from 22%in May,while 19%plan to restock for 2013,compared with 15%in the last survey.
A slightly bigger majority,69%compared with 62%last time,plan to buy on a hand-to-mouth basis,likely due to the still uncertain economic outlook and expectations of a mild recover,according to Barclays.
Meanwhile,52%of clients said their order levels were flat over the previous month,with 35%reporting better order levels and 13%with fewer orders.
When asked to pick the top policy priority for the Chinese government next year,respondents chose infrastructure spending,private sector promotion and domestic consumption.
This latter is expected to be the government's top policy area,according to 39%of the respondents.The same question in May saw 49%of clients vote for infrastructure,with loosening monetary policy a close second.
The Barclays analysts wrote that"This is not to say,however,that infrastructure has completely fallen out of favour.When ranking the possible performance of different sectors in 2013,infrastructure still ranked number one,seen as outperforming the auto sector,property and white goods,in that order in terms of growth rates."
